Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as a tool offers opportunities for modeling the inherent complexity and uncertainty associated with socio-environmental systems. This study draws on New Zealand ski fields (multiple locations) as socio- environmental systems while considering their perceived resilience to low probability but potential high consequences catastrophic natural events (specifically earthquakes). We gathered data at several ski fields using a mixed methodology including: geomorphic assessment, qualitative interviews, and an adaptation of Ozesmi and Ozesmi’s (2003) multi-step fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) approach. The data gathered from FCM are qualitatively condensed, and aggregated to three different participant social groups. The social groups include ski fields users, ski industry workers, and ski field managers. Both quantitative and qualitative indices are used to analyze social cognitive maps to identify critical nodes for ANN simulations. The simulations experiment with auto-associative neural networks for developing adaptive preparation, response and recovery strategies. Moreover, simulations attempt to identify key priorities for preparation, response, and recovery for improving resilience to earthquakes in these complex and dynamic environments. The novel mixed methodology is presented as a means of linking physical and social sciences in high complexity, high uncertainty socio-environmental systems. Simulation results indicate that participants perceived that increases in Social Preparation Action, Social Preparation Resources, Social Response Action and Social Response Resources have a positive benefit in improving the resilience to earthquakes of ski fields’ stakeholders.
This report reviews the literature on regeneration requirements of main canopy tree species in Westland. Forests managed for production purposes have to be harvested in an ecologically sustainable way; to maintain their natural character, harvesting should facilitate regeneration of target species and ensure that their recruitment is in proportion to the extent of extraction. The reasons for species establishing at any point in time are unclear; however, they are probably related to the availability of suitable microsites for establishment, the size of the canopy openings formed by disturbance, and whether or not seeds are available at or around the time of the disturbance. Age structures from throughout Westland show that extensive, similar-aged, post-earthquake cohorts of trees are a feature of the region. This suggests that infrequent, massive earthquakes are the dominant coarse-scale disturbance agent, triggering episodes of major erosion and sedimentation and leaving a strong imprint in the forest structure. In other forests, flooding and catastrophic windthrow are major forms of disturbance. The findings suggest that, in general, large disturbances are required for conifer regeneration. This has implications for any sustained yield management of these forests if conifers are to remain an important component. Any harvesting should recognise the importance for tree establishment of: forest floor microsites, such as fallen logs and tree tip-up mounds; and the variable way in which canopy gaps are formed. Harvesting should maintain the 'patchy' nature of the natural forest—large patches of dense conifers interspersed with more heterogeneous patches of mixed species.This is a client report commissioned by West Coast Conservancy and funded from the Unprogrammed Science Advice fund.
Quick and reliable assessment of the condition of bridges in a transportation network after an earthquake can greatly assist immediate post-disaster response and long-term recovery. However, experience shows that available resources, such as qualified inspectors and engineers, will typically be stretched for such tasks. Structural health monitoring (SHM) systems can therefore make a real difference in this context. SHM, however, needs to be deployed in a strategic manner and integrated into the overall disaster response plans and actions to maximize its benefits. This study presents, in its first part, a framework of how this can be achieved. Since it will not be feasible, or indeed necessary, to use SHM on every bridge, it is necessary to prioritize bridges within individual networks for SHM deployment. A methodology for such prioritization based on structural and geotechnical seismic risks affecting bridges and their importance within a network is proposed in the second part. An example using the methodology application to selected bridges in the medium-sized transportation network of Wellington, New Zealand is provided. The third part of the paper is concerned with using monitoring data for quick assessment of bridge condition and damage after an earthquake. Depending on the bridge risk profile, it is envisaged that data will be obtained from either local or national seismic monitoring arrays or SHM systems installed on bridges. A method using artificial neural networks is proposed for using data from a seismic array to infer key ground motion parameters at an arbitrary bridges site. The methodology is applied to seismic data collected in Christchurch, New Zealand. Finally, how such ground motion parameters can be used in bridge damage and condition assessment is outlined AM - Accepted manuscript
8-pages Due to the extreme damage seen in several recent earthquakes, several passive energy dissipation devices have been developed with different mechanisms of energy dissipation. Response spectra analysis across multiple earthquake suites is used to investigate the reductions in structural response and base shear forces to probabilistically assess the impact of these devices using suites of ground motions from the SAC project. Single-degree-of-freedom spectral analysis structures are used with nonlinear models of the sliding hinge joint (SHJ) and HF2V devices. Reduction factors are computed for each device compared to a linear, no-device structure. Force capacity for SHJ and HF2V devices are equivalent. Results are presented as 5th, 25th, median (50th), 75th and 95th percentile responses at each period (0.1-5.0s by 0.1s increments). Both devices show significant reductions in displacement at all spectral periods of 30- 60% (at median). Both increase base shear forces. However, SHJ systems show both a broader 5-95th percentile range, as well as larger increases in base shear due to their different velocity dependence in dissipating energy. The results provide initial design trade-off information in a probabilistic, performance-based framework for these devices.
Semi-empirical models based on in-situ geotechnical tests have become the standard of practice for predicting soil liquefaction. Since the inception of the “simplified” cyclic-stress model in 1971, variants based on various in-situ tests have been developed, including the Cone Penetration Test (CPT). More recently, prediction models based soley on remotely-sensed data were developed. Similar to systems that provide automated content on earthquake impacts, these “geospatial” models aim to predict liquefaction for rapid response and loss estimation using readily-available data. This data includes (i) common ground-motion intensity measures (e.g., PGA), which can either be provided in near-real-time following an earthquake, or predicted for a future event; and (ii) geospatial parameters derived from digital elevation models, which are used to infer characteristics of the subsurface relevent to liquefaction. However, the predictive capabilities of geospatial and geotechnical models have not been directly compared, which could elucidate techniques for improving the geospatial models, and which would provide a baseline for measuring improvements. Accordingly, this study assesses the realtive efficacy of liquefaction models based on geospatial vs. CPT data using 9,908 case-studies from the 2010-2016 Canterbury earthquakes. While the top-performing models are CPT-based, the geospatial models perform relatively well given their simplicity and low cost. Although further research is needed (e.g., to improve upon the performance of current models), the findings of this study suggest that geospatial models have the potential to provide valuable first-order predictions of liquefaction occurence and consequence. Towards this end, performance assessments of geospatial vs. geotechnical models are ongoing for more than 20 additional global earthquakes.
For 150,000 Christchurch school students, the 12.51 pm earthquake of 22 February 2011 shattered their normal lunch time activities and thrust their teachers into the role of emergency first responders. Whether helping students (children) escape immediate danger, or identifying and managing the best strategies for keeping children safe, including provision of extended caregiving when parents were unable to return to school to retrieve their children, teachers had to manage their own fears and trauma reactions in order to appear calm and prevent further distress for the children in their care. Only then did teachers return to their families. Eighteen months later, twenty teachers from across Christchurch, were interviewed. At 12.51pm, the teachers were essentially first responders. Using their usual methods for presenting a calm and professional image, the teachers’ emotion regulation (ER) strategies for managing their immediate fears were similar to those of professional first responders, with similar potential for subsequent burnout and negative emotional effects. Teachers’ higher emotional exhaustion and burnout 18 months later, were associated with school relocation. Lower burnout was associated with more emotional awareness, ER and perceived support. Consistent with international research, teachers’ use of cognitive reappraisal (re-thinking a situation) was an effective ER strategy, but this may not prevent teachers’ emotional resources from eventually becoming depleted. Teachers fulfill an important role in supporting children’s psychosocial adjustment following a natural disaster. However, as also acknowledged in international research, we need to also focus on supporting the teachers themselves.
This paper provides a summary of initial research results investigating systematic site effects from the prediction residuals of empirical- and physics-based ground-motion models (GMMs) for small magnitude (i.e., 3.5 ≤ MW ≤ 5) active shallow crustal earthquakes in New Zealand (NZ). Advancing ground-motion predictability through physics-based GMMs is an iterative process and requires addressing fundamental questions like: Is there salient physics which has been overlooked? Which geographic regions have predictions that significantly deviate from observations and why? Which sites exhibit systematic prediction residuals and how can the attributes influencing them be identified? This preliminary study examines these questions by classifying 171 sites from the Canterbury and Wellington regions into four geomorphic categories: basin, basin-edge, hill, and valley, following the categorisation by Nweke et al. (2022). Trends in the site-to-site residuals for each geomorphic category indicate apparent differences between the four categories, with residuals for valley sites illustrating a clear dependence with the inferred fundamental site period. Computed residuals from both empirical- and physics-based GMMs also provided insight into the role of site-specific attributes vs. the different prediction methods, assisting to understand the salient causes of these residuals.
This report summarizes the development of a region-wide surficial soil shear wave velocity (Vs ) model based on the unique combination of a large high-spatial-density database of cone penetration test (CPT) logs in the greater Christchurch urban area (> 15, 000 logs as of 1 February 2014) and the Christchurch-specific empirical correlation between soil Vs and CPT data developed by McGann et al. [1, 2]. This model has applications for site characterization efforts via maps of time-averaged Vs over specific depths (e.g. Vs30, Vs10), and for numerical modeling efforts via the identification of typical Vs profiles for different regions and soil behaviour types within Christchurch. In addition, the Vs model can be used to constrain the near-surface velocities for the 3D seismic velocity model of the Canterbury basin [3] currently being developed for the purpose of broadband ground motion simulation. The general development of these region-wide near-surface Vs models includes the following general phases, with each discussed in separate chapters of this report. • An evaluation of the available CPT dataset for suitability, and the definition of other datasets and assumptions necessary to characterize the surficial sediments of the region to 30 m depth. • The development of time-averaged shear wave velocity (Vsz) surfaces for the Christchurch area from the adopted CPT dataset (and supplementary data/assumptions) using spatial interpolation. The Vsz surfaces are used to explore the characteristics of the near-surface soils in the regions and are shown to correspond well with known features of the local geology, the historical ecosystems of the area, and observations made following the 2010- 2011 Canterbury earthquakes. • A detailed analysis of the Vs profiles in eight subregions of Christchurch is performed to assess the variablity in the soil profiles for regions with similar Vsz values and to assess Vsz as a predictive metric for local site response. It is shown that the distrubution of soil shear wave velocity in the Christchurch regions is highly variable both spatially (horizontally) and with depth (vertically) due to the varied geological histories for different parts of the area, and the highly stratified nature of the nearsurface deposits. This variability is not considered to be greatly significant in terms of current simplified site classification systems; based on computed Vs30 values, all considered regions can be categorized as NEHRP sites class D (180 < Vs < 360 m/s) or E (Vs < 180 m/s), however, detailed analysis of the shear wave velocity profiles in different subregions of Christchurch show that the expected surficial site response can vary quite a bit across the region despite the relative similarity in Vs30
New Zealand has a housing crisis. High land prices and high construction costs have all contributed to unaffordable housing. Additionally, the New Zealand dream of the "quarter acre section" lifestyle that has encouraged urban sprawl throughout our major cities with increasingly unsustainable services, transport and road costs. New and exciting housing options need to be explored for urban areas.
Christchurch is a city in New Zealand where urban sprawl has always been prevalent. In the wake of the 2010/2011 earthquakes sprawl increased further, relocating large suburban areas yet further away from the city centre. This has caused a greater reliance on cars, and a slower revival to the city.
Historically there is an aversion to higher density living. Perceived desirability is a large factor. The medium to high density solutions produced thus far have little regard for the concept of "home", with the use of substandard materials, and monotonous and repetitive design, and essentially falling short of addressing the needs of New Zealand's increasing population.
"A Home with a View" looks to address the needs of New Zealanders and Christchurch, through the individual tower-house within an overarching tower-housing neighbourhood development. The design as research thesis develops a medium density tower-housing neighbourhood as a mini city-scape, through the exploration of the tower-house as an intimate space to live and observe from.
Tower-housing has the potential to create a delightful, lively neighbourhood environment that contributes to quirky, new, and exciting housing options for New Zealand. The tower-house creates desire through unconventional lifestyle and highlights engaging solutions to an individual vertical housing type.
This research is a creative exploration of transmedia’s ability to offer up a model of distribution and audience engagement for political documentary. Transmedia, as is well known, is a fluid concept. It is not restricted to the activities of the entertainment industry and its principles also reverberate in the practice of political and activist documentary projects. This practice-led research draws on data derived from the production and circulation of Obrero, an independent transmedia documentary. The project explores the conditions and context of the Filipino rebuild workers who migrated to Christchurch, New Zealand after the earthquake in 2011. Obrero began as a film festival documentary that co-exists with two other new media iterations, each reaching its respective target audience: a web documentary, and a Facebook-native documentary. This study argues that relocating the documentary across new media spaces not only expands the narrative but also extends the fieldwork and investigation, forms like-minded publics, and affords the creation of an organised hub of information for researchers, academics and the general public. Treating documentary as research can represent a novel pathway to knowledge generation and the present case study, overall, provides an innovative model for future scholarship
Worldwide, the numbers of people living with chronic conditions are rapidly on the rise. Chronic illnesses are enduring and often cannot be cured, requiring a strategy for long term management and intervention to prevent further exacerbation. Globally, there has been an increase in interventions using telecommunications technologies to aid patients in their home setting to manage chronic illnesses. Such interventions have often been delivered by nurses. The purpose of this research was to assess whether a particular intervention that had been successfully implemented in the United Kingdom could also be implemented in Canterbury. In particular, this research assessed the perspectives of Canterbury based practice nurses and district nurses. The findings suggest that a majority of both district and practice nurses did not view the service as compatible with their current work situation. Existing workload and concerns over funding of the proposed service were identified as potential barriers. However, the service was perceived as potentially beneficial for some, with the elderly based in rural areas, or patients with chronic mental health needs identified as more likely to benefit than others. Practice nurses expressed strong views on who should deliver such services. Given that it was identified that practice nurses already have in-depth knowledge of their patients’ health, while valuing the strong relationships established with their communities, it was suggested that patients would most benefit from locally based nurses to deliver any community based health services in the future. It was also found that teletriaging is currently widely used by practice nurses across Canterbury to meet a range of health needs, including chronic mental health needs. This suggests that the scope of teletriaging in community health and its potential and full implications are currently not well understood in New Zealand. Significant events, such as the Christchurch earthquakes indicate the potential role of teletriaging in addressing mental health issues, thereby reducing the chronic health burden in the community.
This work investigates the possibility of developing a non-contact, non-line of sight sensor to measure interstorey drift through simulation and experimental validation. • The method uses frequency-modulated continuous wave (FMCW) radar to measure displacement. This method is commonly in use in a number of modern applications, including aircraft altimeters and automotive parking sensors. • The technique avoids numerous problems found in contemporary structural health monitoring methods, namely integral drift errors and structural modification requirements. • The smallest achievable detection error in displacement was found to be as low as 0.26%, through simulated against the displacement response of a single degree of freedom structure subject to ground motion excitation. • This was verified during experimentation, when a corner-style reflector was placed on a shake table running ground motion data taken from the 4th September 2010 earthquake in Christchurch. These results confirmed the conclusions drawn from simulation.
Active learning has a long heritage in Geography and allied subjects, and many claims are made about its benefits. This article attempts a long run assessment of these benefits, drawing on a survey of 180 respondents who graduated from a capstone Geography course over a 15-year period. The course focuses on community-based research and depends on the development and curation of an ecosystem of students, academic staff mentors, community partners and university managers. It is designed to enable students to make a difference, whilst gaining experience of working in groups, managing time and expectations, and workplace preparation. The paper assesses impacts on respondents in the long term, rather than the more usual results of course surveys conducted at the time. The context of the course is notable, as it began one year before the Canterbury earthquake sequence, which sharpened both community need and opportunity for such learning methods. The insights gained from developing and running the course over the period of time in question are outlined.
This report to RCP Ltd and University of Canterbury summarises the findings of a 5 month secondment to the CERA Port Hills Land Clearance Team. Improvement strategies were initiated and observed. The Port Hills Land Clearance Programme is the undertaking of the demolition of all built structures from the Crown’s compulsory acquired 714 residential red zoned properties. These properties are zoned red due to an elevated life risk as a result of geotechnical land uncertainty following the 2011 Canterbury Earthquakes.
This article reports on research conducted in Christchurch, New Zealand, after the 22 February 2011 earthquake. This quake and thousands of subsequent aftershocks have left the city of Christchurch with serious infrastructure damage to roads, sewage supply, housing and commercial buildings. The emergence of a vibrant art and craft movement in the Christchurch region post earthquake has been an unexpected aspect of the recovery process. The article begins with a review of the literature on traditional responses to disaster recovery illustrating how more contemporary approaches are community-focused. We review the links between crafting and well-being, and report on qualitative research conducted with five focus groups and nine individuals who have contributed to this movement in Christchurch. The findings illustrate the role crafting has played post earthquake, in terms of processing key elements of the disaster for healing and recovery, creating opportunities for social support; giving to others; generating learning and meaning making and developing a vision for the future. The data analysis is underpinned by theory related to post-traumatic growth and ecological concerns. The role of social work in promoting low-cost initiatives such as craft groups to foster social resilience and aid in the recovery from disaster trauma is explored. This discussion considers why such approaches are rare in social work.
This paper reports on a service-learning public journalism project in which postgraduate journalism students explore ways to engage with and report on diverse communities. Media scholars have argued that news media, and local newspapers in particular, must re-engage with their communities. Likewise, journalism studies scholars have urged educators to give journalism students greater opportunities to reflect on their work by getting out among journalism’s critics, often consumers or citizens concerned about content and the preparation of future journalists. The challenge for journalism educators is to prepare students for working in partnership with communities while also developing their ability to operate reflectively and critically within the expectations of the news media industry and wider society. The aim of this project has been to help students find ways to both listen and lead in a community, and also reflect on the challenges and critiques of community journalism practices. The project began in 2013 with stories about residents’ recovery following the devastating 2011 Canterbury earthquakes, and aimed to create stories that could contribute to community connection and engagement, and thereby resilience and recovery. The idea was inspired by research about post-disaster renewal that indicated that communities with strong social capital and social networks were more resilient and recovered more quickly and strongly. The project’s longer-term aim has been to explore community journalism practices that give greater power to citizens and communities by prioritising listening and processes of engagement. Over several months, students network with a community group to identify subjects with whom they will co-create a story, and then complete a story on which they must seek the feedback of their subject. Community leaders have described the project as a key example of how to do things “with people not to people”, and an outstanding contribution to the community-led component of Canterbury’s recovery. Analysis of student reflections, which are a key part of each year’s project, reveals the process of engaging with communities has helped students to map community dynamics, think more critically about source relationships, editorial choices and objectivity norms, and to develop a perspective on the diverse ways they can go about their journalism in the future. Each year, students partner with different groups and organisations, addressing different themes each time the project runs. For 2016, the programme proposes to develop the project in a new way, by not just exploring a community’s stories but also exploring its media needs and it aims to work with Christchurch’s new migrant Filipino community to develop the groundwork for a community media and/or communication platform, which Filipino community leaders say is a pressing need. For this iteration, journalism students will be set further research tasks aimed at deepening their ‘public listening’: they will conduct a survey of community members’ media use and needs as well as qualitative research interviews. It is hoped that the data collected will strengthen students’ understanding of their own journalism practice, as well as form the basis for work on developing media tools for minority groups who are generally poorly represented in mainstream media. In 2015, the journalism programme surveyed its community partners and held follow-up interviews with 13 of 18 story subjects to elicit further feedback on its news content and thereby deepen understanding of different community viewpoints. The survey and interview data revealed the project affected story subjects in a number of positive and interesting ways. Subjects said they appreciated the way student reporters took their time to build relationships and understand the context of the community groups with which they were involved, and contrasted this with their experience of professional journalists who had held pre-conceived assumptions about stories and/or rushed into interviews. As a direct consequence of the students’ approach, participants said they better trusted the student journalists to portray them accurately and fairly. Most were also encouraged by the positive recognition stories brought and several said the engagement process had helped their personal development, all of which had spin-offs for their community efforts. The presentation night that wraps up each year’s project, where community groups, story subjects and students come together to network and share the final stories, was cited as a significant positive aspect of the project and a great opportunity for community partners to connect with others doing similar work. Community feedback will be sought in future projects to inform and improve successive iterations.
Aotearoa has undoubtedly some of the most beautiful landscapes in the world, a privilege for its inhabitants. However, as our cities have developed post-colonisation, the connection between the natural environment and its occupants has diminished. Designers play a vital role within an ever evolving world to progress the built environment in a way that reflects and restores vital values that have been deprioritised. Future practice should prioritise diversity, care for the land, enhancement of community space, and sustainable practices.
This research sets out to demonstrate that new design methodologies can encourage kaitiakitanga, whilst meeting the needs of urban public space. Initially through critical analysis and literature based research, a study of Ōtautahi Christchurch, the South Island’s largest city, was undertaken. The principles of a ‘15 minute city’ were also explored and applied to the city, establishing issues within the built environment that drove the overall research direction.
Through the tools of critical reflection and a research through design methodology, a design toolkit was constructed. This toolkit sets out to provide designers with a simple streamlined method of developing urban interventions that are sustainable and beneficial for human well-being. The toolkit incorporates an abstraction of the ‘15 minute city’ ideology and introduces the concepts of evolving green transportation routes within cities. Ōtautahi Christchurch, a city with a significant history of earthquake-caused damage, was chosen as the primary site for the application of this research’s proposed toolkit. The city becomes a canvas for an urban rebuild that explores and aims to set a precedent for a progressive 21st-century city.
A key finding as the toolkit research developed was the idea of a ‘temporary’ phase or intervention, being added to traditional design methodologies prior to permanent building. The research explains how this temporary phase could more actively engage diverse user groups and create active conversations between communities and designers.
The refined toolkit sets outs proposed timeline phases, methods of site analysis and development of design drivers. Alongside this, a modular architectural system establishes a design proposal for the temporary phase of an individual site within an evolving green route. This outcome provides further opportunity for realistic testing, which would actively involve communities and aims to shift our priorities within urban development. The introduction of the ‘temporary’ phase is beneficial in mitigating psychological implications on people and limiting physical impacts on the landscape.
The final design stage of the thesis applied the toolkit process to three sites in Ōtautahi Christchurch. Through a holistic lens, the toolkit framework set out methods to collate information that provides guidance for development on the sites. While some layers are initiated simply by recognising site characteristics, others are informed through software such as GIS.
Connected by a proposed green transport route, the three initial sites are developed with temporary interventions that utilise the modular design set out previously in the research. Contextualising the interventions on real world sites tested the flexibility of the system and allowed for critical reflection on the applicability of the toolkit to Aotearoa.
The research concludes by identifying future research opportunities and speculates on possible applications of its findings within the real world. Temporary Permanence highlights the significant role that we, as designers, have in shifting urban priorities to create more holistic, sustainable, and inclusive cities for people and the planet.
It is not a matter of if a major earthquake will happen in New Zealand, it is when. Earthquakes wreak havoc, cut off power and water supply, lines of communication, sewer, supply chains, and transport infrastructure. People get injured and whole communities can get cut off the rest of the country for extended periods of time. Countries taking measures to increase the population's preparedness tend to suffer less severe consequences than those that do not. Disaster management authorities deliver comprehensive instructions and preparation guidance, yet communities remain grossly underprepared. There are multiple factors that influence motivation for preparedness. Personal experience is one of the most significant factors that influence preparedness motivation. Not many people will experience a severe and damaging earthquake in their lifetime. A serious game (SG) that is a computer simulation of an earthquake is a tool that can let participants experience the earthquake and its aftermath from the safety of their computer. The main result of this research is a positive answer to the question: Can a serious game motivate people to prepare for earthquakes at least just as good as a personal experience of at least a moderate earthquake? There are different levels of immersion this serious game can be implemented at. In this thesis the same earthquake experience scenario – SG “ShakeUp” is implemented as a desktop application and a virtual reality (VR) application. A user study is conducted with the aim of comparing the motivation level achieved by the two versions of the SG “ShakeUp”. In this study no benefits of using VR over traditional desktop application were found: participants trying both versions of the SG “ShakeUp” reported similar levels of motivation to prepare for earthquakes immediately after the experiment. This means that both versions of the experience were equally effective in motivating participants to prepare for earthquakes. An additional benefit of this result is that the cheaper and easier to deliver desktop version can be widely used in various education campaigns. Participants reported being more motivated to prepare for earthquakes by either version of the SG “ShakeUp” than by any other contributing factor, including their previous earthquake experience or participation in a public education campaign. Both versions of the SG “ShakeUp” can successfully overcome personal bias, unrealistic optimism, pessimism, lack of perceived control over one’s earthquake preparation actions, fatalism, and sense of helplessness in the face of the earthquakes and motivate the individual to prepare for earthquakes. Participants without the prior earthquake experience benefit most from the SG “ShakeUp” regardless of the version tried, compared to the participants who had experienced an earthquake: significantly more of them will reconsider their current level of earthquake preparedness; about 24% more of them attribute their increased level of motivation to prepare for earthquakes to the SG “ShakeUp”. For every earthquake preparation action there is about 25% more people who felt motivated to do it after trying the SG “ShakeUp” than those who have done this preparation action before the experiment. After trying either version of the SG “ShakeUp”, people who live in a free standing house and those who live in a rental property reported highest levels of intent to carry on with the preparation actions. The proposed application prototype has been discussed with the University of Canterbury Earthquake Centre and received very positive feedback as having potential for practical use by various disaster management authorities and training institutions. The research shows that the SG “ShakeUp” motivates people to prepare for earthquakes as good as a personal earthquake experience and can be successfully used in various education campaigns.
Lincoln University was commissioned by the Avon-Otakaro Network (AvON) to estimate the value of the benefits of a ‘recreation reserve’ or ‘river park’ in the Avon River Residential Red Zone (ARRRZ). This research has demonstrated significant public desire and support for the development of a recreation reserve in the Avon River Residential Red Zone. Support is strongest for a unique natural environment with native fauna and flora, healthy wetlands and rivers, and recreational opportunities that align with this vision, such as walking, cycling and water-based sporting and leisure activities. The research also showed support for a reserve that promotes and enables community interaction and wellbeing, and is evident in respondents’ desires for community gardens, regular festivals and markets, and the physical linking of the CBD with eastern suburbs through a green corridor. There is less support for children’s playgrounds, sports fields or open grassed areas, all of which could be considered as more typical of an urban park development. Benefits (willing to pay) to Christchurch residents (excluding tourists) of a recreation reserve could be as high as $35 million each year. Savings to public health costs could be as high as $50.3 million each year. The incorporation or restoration of various ecosystems services, including water quality improvements, flood mitigation and storm water management could yield a further $8.8 million ($19, 600) per hectare/year at 450 ha). Combined annual benefits of a recreational reserve in the ARRRZ are approximately $94.1 million per annum but this figure does not include potentially significant benefits from, for example, tourism, property equity gains in areas adjacent to the reserve, or the effects of economic rejuvenation in the East. Although we were not able to provide costing estimates for park attributes, this study does make available the value of benefits, which can be used as a guide to the scope of expenditure on development of each park attribute.
The Canterbury region of New Zealand was shaken by major earthquakes on the 4th September 2010 and 22nd February 2011. The quakes caused 185 fatalities and extensive land, infrastructure and building damage, particularly in the Eastern suburbs of Christchurch city. Almost 450 ha of residential and public land was designated as a ‘Red Zone’ unsuitable for residential redevelopment because land damage was so significant, engineering solutions were uncertain, and repairs would be protracted. Subsequent demolition of all housing and infrastructure in the area has left a blank canvas of land stretching along the Avon River corridor from the CBD to the sea. Initially the Government’s official – but enormously controversial – position was that this land would be cleared and lie fallow until engineering solutions could be found that enabled residential redevelopment. This paper presents an application of a choice experiment (CE) that identified and assessed Christchurch residents’ preferences for different land use options of this Red Zone. Results demonstrated strong public support for the development of a recreational reserve comprising a unique natural environment with native fauna and flora, healthy wetlands and rivers, and recreational opportunities that align with this vision. By highlighting the value of a range of alternatives, the CE provided a platform for public participation and expanded the conversational terrain upon which redevelopment policy took place. We conclude the method has value for land use decision-making beyond the disaster recovery context.
© 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. Prediction of building collapse due to significant seismic motion is a principle objective of earthquake engineers, particularly after a major seismic event when the structure is damaged and decisions may need to be made rapidly concerning the safe occupation of a building or surrounding areas. Traditional model-based pushover analyses are effective, but only if the structural properties are well understood, which is not the case after an event when that information is most useful. This paper combines hysteresis loop analysis (HLA) structural health monitoring (SHM) and incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) methods to identify and then analyse collapse capacity and the probability of collapse for a specific structure, at any time, a range of earthquake excitations to ensure robustness. This nonlinear dynamic analysis enables constant updating of building performance predictions following a given and subsequent earthquake events, which can result in difficult to identify deterioration of structural components and their resulting capacity, all of which is far more difficult using static pushover analysis. The combined methods and analysis provide near real-time updating of the collapse fragility curves as events progress, thus quantifying the change of collapse probability or seismic induced losses very soon after an earthquake for decision-making. Thus, this combination of methods enables a novel, higher-resolution analysis of risk that was not previously available. The methods are not computationally expensive and there is no requirement for a validated numerical model, thus providing a relatively simpler means of assessing collapse probability immediately post-event when such speed can provide better information for critical decision-making. Finally, the results also show a clear need to extend the area of SHM toward creating improved predictive models for analysis of subsequent events, where the Christchurch series of 2010–2011 had significant post-event aftershocks.
Heritage buildings are an important element of our urban environments, representing the hope and aspirations of a generation gone, reminding us of our achievements and our identity. When heritage buildings suffer damage, or fall into disrepair they are either met by one of two extremes; a bulldozer or painstaking repair. If the decision to conserve defeats the bulldozer, current heritage practice favours restoration into a mausoleum-type monument to yesteryear. But what if, rather than becoming a museum, these heritage buildings could live on and become a palimpsest of history? What if the damage was embraced and embodied in the repair? The Cathedral of the Blessed Sacrament on Barbadoes Street, Christchurch is the case study building for this thesis. Suffering damage in the Canterbury earthquakes of 2010 and 2011, the Cathedral sits in ruin waiting for decisions to be made around how it can be retained for future generations. This thesis will propose a reconstruction for the Cathedral through the analysis of precedent examples of reconstructing damaged heritage buildings and guided by a heritage framework proposed in this thesis. The employed process will be documented as an alternative method for reconstructing other damaged heritage buildings.
Natural catastrophes are increasing worldwide. They are becoming more frequent but also more severe and impactful on our built environment leading to extensive damage and losses. Earthquake events account for the smallest part of natural events; nevertheless seismic damage led to the most fatalities and significant losses over the period 1981-2016 (Munich Re). Damage prediction is helpful for emergency management and the development of earthquake risk mitigation projects. Recent design efforts focused on the application of performance-based design engineering where damage estimation methodologies use fragility and vulnerability functions. However, the approach does not explicitly specify the essential criteria leading to economic losses. There is thus a need for an improved methodology that finds the critical building elements related to significant losses. The here presented methodology uses data science techniques to identify key building features that contribute to the bulk of losses. It uses empirical data collected on site during earthquake reconnaissance mission to train a machine learning model that can further be used for the estimation of building damage post-earthquake. The first model is developed for Christchurch. Empirical building damage data from the 2010-2011 earthquake events is analysed to find the building features that contributed the most to damage. Once processed, the data is used to train a machine-learning model that can be applied to estimate losses in future earthquake events.
Home address-based school zoning regulations are widely used in many countries as one means of selecting pupils and estimating future enrolment. However, there is little research regarding an alternative system of zoning for parents’ place of employment. Previous research has failed to analyse potential impacts from workplace-based zoning, including negating the effects of chain migration theory and settlement patterns to facilitate cultural integration, promoting the physical and mental wellbeing of families by enabling their close proximity during the day, as well as positive results concerning a volatile real estate market. As the modern family more often consists of one or both parents working full-time, the requirement of children to attend school near their home may not be as reasonably convenient as near their parents’ workplace. A case study was performed on one primary school in Christchurch, consisting of surveys and interviews of school stakeholders, including parents and staff, along with GIS mapping of school locations. This found deeper motivations for choosing a primary school, including a preference for cultural integration and the desire to school children under 14 years near their parents’ place of employment in case of illness or earthquake. These data suggest that the advantages of workplace-based zoning may be worth considering, and this thesis creates a framework for the Ministry of Education to implement this initiative in a pilot programme for primary schools in Christchurch.
The supply of water following disasters has always been of significant concern to communities. Failure of water systems not only causes difficulties for residents and critical users but may also affect other hard and soft infrastructure and services. The dependency of communities and other infrastructure on the availability of safe and reliable water places even more emphasis on the resilience of water supply systems. This thesis makes two major contributions. First, it proposes a framework for measuring the multifaceted resilience of water systems, focusing on the significance of the characteristics of different communities for the resilience of water supply systems. The proposed framework, known as the CARE framework, consists of eight principal activities: (1) developing a conceptual framework; (2) selecting appropriate indicators; (3) refining the indicators based on data availability; (4) correlation analysis; (5) scaling the indicators; (6) weighting the variables; (7) measuring the indicators; and (8) aggregating the indicators. This framework allows researchers to develop appropriate indicators in each dimension of resilience (i.e., technical, organisational, social, and economic), and enables decision makers to more easily participate in the process and follow the procedure for composite indicator development. Second, it identifies the significant technical, social, organisational and economic factors, and the relevant indicators for measuring these factors. The factors and indicators were gathered through a comprehensive literature review. They were then verified and ranked through a series of interviews with water supply and resilience specialists, social scientists and economists. Vulnerability, redundancy and criticality were identified as the most significant technical factors affecting water supply system robustness, and consequently resilience. These factors were tested for a scenario earthquake of Mw 7.6 in Pukerua Bay in New Zealand. Four social factors and seven indicators were identified in this study. The social factors are individual demands and capacities, individual involvement in the community, violence level in the community, and trust. The indicators are the Giving Index, homicide rate, assault rate, inverse trust in army, inverse trust in police, mean years of school, and perception of crime. These indicators were tested in Chile and New Zealand, which experienced earthquakes in 2010 and 2011 respectively. The social factors were also tested in Vanuatu following TC Pam, which hit the country in March 2015. Interestingly, the organisational dimension contributed the largest number of factors and indicators for measuring water supply resilience to disasters. The study identified six organisational factors and 17 indicators that can affect water supply resilience to disasters. The factors are: disaster precaution; predisaster planning; data availability, data accessibility and information sharing; staff, parts, and equipment availability; pre-disaster maintenance; and governance. The identified factors and their indicators were tested for the case of Christchurch, New Zealand, to understand how organisational capacity affected water supply resilience following the earthquake in February 2011. Governance and availability of critical staff following the earthquake were the strongest organisational factors for the Christchurch City Council, while the lack of early warning systems and emergency response planning were identified as areas that needed to be addressed. Economic capacity and quick access to finance were found to be the main economic factors influencing the resilience of water systems. Quick access to finance is most important in the early stages following a disaster for response and restoration, but its importance declines over time. In contrast, the economic capacity of the disaster struck area and the water sector play a vital role in the subsequent reconstruction phase rather than in the response and restoration period. Indicators for these factors were tested for the case of the February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand. Finally, a new approach to measuring water supply resilience is proposed. This approach measures the resilience of the water supply system based on actual water demand following an earthquake. The demand-based method calculates resilience based on the difference between water demand and system capacity by measuring actual water shortage (i.e., the difference between water availability and demand) following an earthquake
Introduction In 2011 Christchurch city centre was partially destroyed by an earthquake. Government-led anchor projects were tasked with bringing Christchurch back from rubble. After a period of 7 years out of 16 proposed projects, 10 are already over time for their initial completion dates and the ones completed, are under scrutiny for failing to deliver their expected outcome.
The Building Act 2004 now requires Territorial Authorities (TAs) to have in place a policy setting out how they intend making existing buildings that would be unable to withstand a moderate earthquake safe for their occupiers. Many of the resultant policies developed by TAs have put in place mandatory upgrade requirements that will force owners to expend large amounts of capital on seismic upgrading of their buildings. The challenge for the property owners and TAs alike is to make such development work economic or the result will be wide scale demolition of old buildings. This has serious implications for both heritage conservation and inner city revitalisation plans that are based on existing heritage buildings. This paper sets out the issues and challenges for the seismic upgrading of buildings in New Zealand and puts forward some potential solutions
Following the 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes, a renewed focus has been directed across New Zealand to the hazard posed by the country‘s earthquake-vulnerable buildings, namely unreinforced masonry (URM) and reinforced concrete (RC) buildings with potentially nonductile components that have historically performed poorly in large earthquakes. The research reported herein was pursued with the intention of addressing several recommendations made by the Canterbury Earthquakes Royal Commission of Inquiry which were classified into the following general categories: Identification and provisional vulnerability assessment of URM and RC buildings and building components; Testing, assessment, and retrofitting of URM walls loaded out-of-plane, with a particular focus on highly vulnerable URM cavity walls; Testing and assessment of RC frame components, especially those with presumably non-ductile reinforcement detailing; Portfolio management considering risks, regulations, and potential costs for a portfolio that includes several potentially earthquake-vulnerable buildings; and Ongoing investigations and proposed research needs. While the findings from the reported research have implications for seismic assessments of buildings across New Zealand and elsewhere, an emphasis was placed on Auckland given this research program‘s partnership with the Auckland Council, the Auckland region accounting for about a third each of the country‘s population and economic production, and the number and variety of buildings within the Auckland building stock. An additional evaluation of a historic building stock was carried out for select buildings located in Hawke‘s Bay, and additional experimental testing was carried out for select buildings located in Hawke‘s Bay and Christchurch
