Trends in systematic site residuals with geomorphic categories for New Zealand ground-motion instrument sites
This paper provides a summary of initial research results investigating systematic site effects from the prediction residuals of empirical- and physics-based ground-motion models (GMMs) for small magnitude (i.e., 3.5 ≤ MW ≤ 5) active shallow crustal earthquakes in New Zealand (NZ). Advancing ground-motion predictability through physics-based GMMs is an iterative process and requires addressing fundamental questions like: Is there salient physics which has been overlooked? Which geographic regions have predictions that significantly deviate from observations and why? Which sites exhibit systematic prediction residuals and how can the attributes influencing them be identified? This preliminary study examines these questions by classifying 171 sites from the Canterbury and Wellington regions into four geomorphic categories: basin, basin-edge, hill, and valley, following the categorisation by Nweke et al. (2022). Trends in the site-to-site residuals for each geomorphic category indicate apparent differences between the four categories, with residuals for valley sites illustrating a clear dependence with the inferred fundamental site period. Computed residuals from both empirical- and physics-based GMMs also provided insight into the role of site-specific attributes vs. the different prediction methods, assisting to understand the salient causes of these residuals.