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Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Greater Christchurch has been through a lot over the past 25 years, and its public transport is no exception. This paper aims to understand the broader factors that have influenced public transport patronage growth from 1999-2025. This is split into two periods, 1999-2010 and 2015-2025, before and after the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence which fundamentally changed Greater Christchurch. Patronage grew from 9.7 to 17.2 million per year in this first period, unprecedented growth for this network, during a time of significant investment into the network. In contrast, 2015-2025 saw stagnation in growth, or even decreases, only growing after the COVID-19 pandemic. Patronage could not keep up with population growth after the earthquakes with growth mostly occurring in the outer areas of Christchurch and its satellite towns. People are less likely to bus from these areas due to long travel times into much of Christchurch, significantly longer than by car. Additionally, many businesses and employees moved outside of Central Christchurch, the main employment area for Greater Christchurch, after the earthquakes, into areas with relatively low bus routes. Significantly less people were willing to bus to work in these areas, apart from Riccarton and Papanui. However, businesses have been returning to Central Christchurch, with more people willing to bus to work there. These past determinants of growth are important to understand so that their effects can be individually researched more in-depth in future, to provide greater clarity on what have been successful factors for public transport growth in Greater Christchurch, and find out if they can be reimplemented or expanded to reignite some of the growth experienced in the 2000’s.