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Research papers, Lincoln University

Disasters are often followed by a large-scale stimulus supporting the economy through the built environment, which can last years. During this time, official economic indicators tend to suggest the economy is doing well, but as activity winds down, the sentiment can quickly change. In response to the damaging 2011 earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand, the regional economy outpaced national economic growth rates for several years during the rebuild. The repair work on the built environment created years of elevated building activity. However, after the peak of the rebuilding activity, as economic and employment growth retracts below national growth, we are left with the question of how the underlying economy performs during large scale stimulus activity in the built environment. This paper assesses the performance of the underlying economy by quantifying the usual, demand-driven level of building activity at this time. Applying an Input–Output approach and excluding the economic benefit gained from the investment stimulus reveals the performance of the underlying economy. The results reveal a strong growing underlying economy, and while convergence was expected as the stimulus slowed down, the results found that growth had already crossed over for some time. The results reveal that the investment stimulus provides an initial 1.5% to 2% growth buffer from the underlying economy before the growth rates cross over. This supports short-term economic recovery and enables the underlying economy to transition away from a significant rebuild stimulus. Once the growth crosses over, five years after the disaster, economic growth in the underlying economy remains buoyant even if official regional economic data suggest otherwise.

Research papers, Lincoln University

Orientation: Large-scale events such as disasters, wars and pandemics disrupt the economy by diverging resource allocation, which could alter employment growth within the economy during recovery. Research purpose: The literature on the disaster–economic nexus predominantly considers the aggregate performance of the economy, including the stimulus injection. This research assesses the employment transition following a disaster by removing this stimulus injection and evaluating the economy’s performance during recovery. Motivation for the study: The underlying economy’s performance without the stimulus’ benefit remains primarily unanswered. A single disaster event is used to assess the employment transition to guide future stimulus response for disasters. Research approach/design and method: Canterbury, New Zealand, was affected by a series of earthquakes in 2010–2011 and is used as a single case study. Applying the historical construction–economic relationship, a counterfactual level of economic activity is quantified and compared with official results. Using an input–output model to remove the economy-wide impact from the elevated activity reveals the performance of the underlying economy and employment transition during recovery. Main findings: The results indicate a return to a demand-driven level of building activity 10 years after the disaster. Employment transition is characterised by two distinct periods. The first 5 years are stimulus-driven, while the 5 years that follow are demand-driven from the underlying economy. After the initial period of elevated building activity, construction repositioned to its long-term level near 5% of value add. Practical/managerial implications: The level of building activity could be used to confidently assess the performance of regional economies following a destructive disaster. The study results argue for an incentive to redevelop the affected area as quickly as possible to mitigate the negative effect of the destruction and provide a stimulus for the economy. Contribution/value-add: This study contributes to a growing stream of regional disaster economics research that assesses the economic effect using a single case study.

Research papers, Lincoln University

The role of tourism in the Christchurch economy and the nature and scope of tourism planning are covered in this presentation, along with the impact of the Canterbury earthquakes. The response to the disaster and the slow road to recovery are also highlighted. The concluding section summarises a new vision for the city of Christchurch.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This report examines and compares case studies of labour market policy responses in APEC economies to natural disasters. It first reviews the policies and practice within APEC economies and internationally in managing the labour market effects of natural disasters. By using comparative case studies, the report then compares recent disaster events in the Asia-Pacific region, including: - the June 2013 Southern Alberta floods in Canada; - the 2010 and 2011 Queensland floods in Australia; - the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes in New Zealand; - the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan; and - the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Two businessmen emerge from a building wondering whether 'Bill English' has ''Made any uplifting pronouncements on the economy or budget lately?..' On the footpath outside is Finance Minister Bill English wearing a sandwich board that reads 'the end is nigh' and carrying a banner that reads 'We're doomed'. Context - the impact of an already struggling economy of the Christchurch earthquakes of 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

In six small cameos Prime Minister John Key ponders over things economic and ends up dancing; he says 'I'm bereft of ideas for the economy gambling the lives of our troops in the Afghanistan mess I'm presiding over the biggest budget deficit in our history borrowing $300m a week to cushion our slide into oblivion Using lots of World Cup piffle to distract from the real issues Yet I'm still rating miles higher than Goff so how hopeless is he??? A little man in the last frame comments 'Spoiled for choice eh?' Context - New Zealand's rather dire economic situation made so much worse by the Christchurch earthquakes of 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011, the consistently high poll rating of John Key and the series of disasters suffered by the Labour Party in the run up to the 2011 election in November. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Text below the image reads 'More silence?..' Prime Minister John Key and the Governor General Sir Anand Satyanand and several 'hangers-on' almost suffer coronaries when an official suggests in discussions about 'cost-saving ideas' that 'One of the National Projects we could "reprioritise" in the wake of the earthquake is to axe any Kiwi VIP attendance at the royal wedding'. Context - The PM and Governor General are thought to be on the list for invitations to the wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton but after the catastrophic Christchurch earthquake of 22 February 2011, which is going to cost the country billions, a wag wonders whether they should go. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Audio, Radio New Zealand

The Reserve Bank has cut its benchmark interest rate, to support the economy against the impact of the Covid-19 virus. The central bank cut its official cash rate to 0.25 percent from one percent. Governor Adrian Orr says the cut is necessary to support businesses and employment. The last time the Reserve Bank made such a big cut was in March 2011 after the Canterbury earthquake. Last week, the bank outlined a range of unconventional monetary policy tools such as negative interest rates, special loans to banks, and buying bonds to put money into the economy. Cameron Bagrie is an independent economist. He speaks to Susie Ferguson.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

A new council report into Wellington's resilience has found the city's economy would take a $37 billion hit if it experienced an event like the Christchurch earthquake. Old people stand accused of displacing more than 40,000 teenagers from jobs over the past five years, as more of them choose to stay in the workforce and employers choose experience over youth.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Text top left reads 'Downsizemic activity' and a seismic graph zigzags wildly but gradually tails off into the words 'Interest rates' which take a serious downwards trend. Context - The Christchurch earthquakes of 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011 which have had an impact on an already stagnating economy. The Reserve Bank has made a relatively large 50-point cut in its benchmark interest rate, the Official Cash Rate (from 3% to 2.5 per cent). Critics say that inflation is already running unacceptably high and there is a threat of much higher inflation in a year or two when the rebuilding of Christchurch begins to put pressure on limited resources. The Reserve Bank acknowledged these factors, but it has chosen instead to focus on the immediate impact of the earthquake on the economy and particularly on all-important business and consumer sentiment. (Press editorial 12 March 2011) Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

'The Politician' cartoon strip. The minister is keen to push through 'unpopular money raising policies' like the 'tax on people's taxes for example'. Context - the Christchurch earthquake of 22 February 2011 has created more strain on an already straining economy and there has been discussion about various possibilities for sticking with the Government's short and long-term targets for debt reduction in spite of the enormous recovery cost for Christchurch. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Anyone keeping a global tally of recent disasters is likely to be asking: What role will the hazards and disasters of coastal plains play in the lives and economies of 21st century humanity? In this article, we reflect on this question using examples of how different types of coastal land performed during the Christchurch and other earthquake events to examine the complex of coastal-tectonic hazards that are being constructed in the Tokyo megacity

Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

The suburb of New Brighton in Christchurch Aotearoa was once a booming retail sector until the end of its exclusivity to Saturday shopping in 1980 and the aftermath of the devastating 2011 Christchurch earthquake. The suburb of New Brighton was hit particularly hard and fell into economic collapse, partly brought on by the nature of its economic structure. This implosion created an urban crisis where people and businesses abandoned the suburb and its once-booming commercial economy. As a result, New Brighton has been left with the residue of abandoned infrastructure and commercial propaganda such as billboards, ATM machines, commercial facades, and shopping trolleys that as abandoned fragments, no longer contribute to culture, society and the economy. This design-led research investigation proposes to repurpose the broken objects that were left behind. By strategically selecting objects that are symbols of the root cause of the economic devastation, the repurposed and re-contextualised fragments will seek to allegorically expose the city’s destructive economic narrative, while providing a renewed sense of place identity for the people. This design-led thesis investigation argues that the seemingly innocuous icons of commercial industry, such as billboards, ATM machines, commercial facades, and shopping trolleys, are intended to act as lures to encourage people to spend money; ultimately, these urban and architectural lures can contribute to economic devastation. The aim of this investigation is to repurpose abandoned fragments of capitalist infrastructure in ways that can help to unveil new possibilities for a disrupted community and enhance their awareness of what led to the urban disruption. The thesis proposes to achieve this research aim by exploring three principal research objectives: 1) to assimilate and re-contextualise disconnected urban fragments into new architectural interventions; 2) to anthropomorphise these new interventions so that they are recognisable as architectural ‘inhabitants’, the storytellers of the urban context; and 3) to curate these new architectural interventions in ways that enable a community-scale allegorical and didactic experience to be recognised.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

On 22 February 2011, Canterbury and its largest city Christchurch experienced its second major earthquake within six months. The region is facing major economic and organisational challenges in the aftermath of these events. Approximately 25% of all buildings in the Christchurch CBD have been “red tagged” or deemed unsafe to enter. The New Zealand Treasury estimates that the combined cost of the February earthquake and the September earthquake is approximately NZ$15 billion[2]. This paper examines the national and regional economic climate prior to the event, discusses the immediate economic implications of this event, and the challenges and opportunities faced by organisations affected by this event. In order to facilitate recovery of the Christchurch area, organisations must adjust to a new norm; finding ways not only to continue functioning, but to grow in the months and years following these earthquakes. Some organisations relocated within days to areas that have been less affected by the earthquakes. Others are taking advantage of government subsidised aid packages to help retain their employees until they can make long-term decisions about the future of their organisation. This paper is framed as a “report from the field” in order to provide insight into the early recovery scenario as it applies to organisations affected by the February 2011 earthquake. It is intended both to inform and facilitate discussion about how organisations can and should pursue recovery in Canterbury, and how organisations can become more resilient in the face of the next crisis.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Between September 2010 and February 2012 (a period of 18 months) the Canterbury region of New Zealand has experienced over 10,000 earthquakes (Nicholls, 2012). This report is the first in a series that will describe the impact of the Canterbury earthquake on businesses. This initial report gives a high level overview of the earthquake events and the impacts on the Canterbury economy and businesses. This report is intended to provide background and context for more in-depth analyses to come in future reports.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

A review of the week's news, including: environmental protests against oil exploration off the East cape, changes to Legal Aid, plans to sell the Pike River coal mine, a Labour MP says his party's list is drawn up by"a gaggle of gays", confidence in the economy grows, extraordinary powers given to the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority, the number of heritage buildings to be demolished after the quake grows, results from faultline mapping in Christchurch to be known within weeks, Mt Ruapehu to be monitored around the clock and Victoria Cross winners are awarded with stamps.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Finance Minister Bill English scratches his head with frustration as he stands up to his chest in earthquake rubble that represents the 'economy'. Allan Bollard the Governor of the Reserve Bank appears in gumboots asking if he can 'help with rebuilding..? by making an 'OCR cut'; he holds a collection box labeled 'OCR cut'. Context - Two earthquakes and hundreds of aftershocks have hit Christchurch, the first on 4 September 2010 and a second more devastating one on 22 February 2011. The Reserve Bank has made a relatively large 50-point cut in its benchmark interest rate, the Official Cash Rate (from 3% to 2.5 per cent). Critics say that inflation is already running unacceptably high and there is a threat of much higher inflation in a year or two when the rebuilding of Christchurch begins to put pressure on limited resources. The Reserve Bank acknowledged these factors, but it has chosen instead to focus on the immediate impact of the earthquake on the economy and particularly on all-important business and consumer sentiment. (Press editorial 12 March 2011) Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Audio, Radio New Zealand

GRANT ROBERTSON to the Minister for Tertiary Education, Skills and Employment: Does he stand by his statement that the Household Labour Force Survey is "the standard internationally recognised measure of employment and unemployment"? PAUL GOLDSMITH to the Minister of Finance: What recent reports has he received on the economy? Dr KENNEDY GRAHAM to the Minister for Climate Change Issues: Does he stand by the answer given by the Minister of Finance to the question "Does he accept that human-induced climate change is real?" that "It may well be…"? Hon DAVID PARKER to the Minister of Finance: Given that unemployment is rising, exports are down, and house price inflation in Auckland and Canterbury is in double-digits, does he agree that after 5 years as Finance Minister he has failed to rebalance and diversify the economy; if not, why not? JOHN HAYES to the Minister of Trade: What efforts is the Government making to deal with the market effects of the possible contamination of some Fonterra diary exports? Hon SHANE JONES to the Minister for Economic Development: What action has he taken to ensure high value jobs are retained in Otago, Waikato, Northland, East Coast and Manawatu? KEVIN HAGUE to the Minister of Health: Exactly how many of the 21 recommendations to the Minister in the 2010 Public Health Advisory Committee Report The Best Start in Life: Achieving effective action on child health and wellbeing has he implemented? JACQUI DEAN to the Minister for Food Safety: What update can she provide the public on the safety of infant formula? Hon DAMIEN O'CONNOR to the Minister for Primary Industries: Does he stand by all his statements? NICKY WAGNER to the Minister for Building and Construction: What reports has he received following the Government's announcement of a new earthquake-prone building policy? RICHARD PROSSER to the Minister for Primary Industries: What reports, if any, has he received regarding the regeneration of fish stocks in the Snapper 1 fishery? Dr DAVID CLARK to the Minister for Economic Development: Does he agree with Dunedin Mayor Dave Cull that "Central government needs to understand we can't have a … two-speed economy where Christchurch and Auckland are ripping ahead and the rest of the regions are withering"; if not, why not?