Using case studies from the 2010-2011 Canterbury, New Zealand earthquake sequence, this study assesses the accuracies of paleoliquefaction back-analysis methods and explores the challenges, techniques, and uncertainties associated with their application. While liquefaction-based back-analyses have been widely used to estimate the magnitudes of paleoearthquakes, their uncertain efficacies continue to significantly affect the computed seismic hazard in regions where they are relied upon. Accordingly, their performance is evaluated herein using liquefaction data from modern earthquakes with known magnitudes. It is shown that when the earthquake source location and mechanism are known, back-analysis methods are capable of accurately deriving seismic parameters from liquefaction evidence. However, because the source location and mechanism are often unknown in paleoseismic studies, and because accurate interpretation is shown to be more difficult in such cases, new analysis techniques are proposed herein. An objective parameter is proposed to geospatially assess the likelihood of any provisional source location, enabling an analyst to more accurately estimate the magnitude of a liquefaction-inducing paleoearthquake. This study demonstrates the application of back-analysis methods, provides insight into their potential accuracies, and provides a framework for performing paleoliquefaction analyses worldwide.
This poster presents the on-going development of a new 3D seismic velocity model of Canterbury, New Zealand. The intention of the model is to provide the 3D crustal structure in the region at multiple length scales for seismic wave propagation simulations, both broadband ground motion and more localized shallow site response analyses.
The abundance of cone penetration test (CPT) data from subsurface explorations in Christchurch and the surrounding areas provides a useful source of information for a characterization of the near surface shear wave velocity ( ) profile for the region. A portion of the investigations were conducted using seismic CPT, enabling the comparison of measured shear wave velocity with CPT data, and subsequently the evaluation of existing CPT- correlations for applicability to Canterbury-specific soils. The existing correlations are shown to be biased, generally over-predicting the observed with depth, thus demonstrating the need for a Canterbury-specific CPT- correlation.
Since the early 1980s seismic hazard assessment in New Zealand has been based on Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). The most recent version of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model, a PSHA model, was published by Stirling et al, in 2012. This model follows standard PSHA principals and combines a nation-wide model of active faults with a gridded point-source model based on the earthquake catalogue since 1840. These models are coupled with the ground-motion prediction equation of McVerry et al (2006). Additionally, we have developed a time-dependent clustering-based PSHA model for the Canterbury region (Gerstenberger et al, 2014) in response to the Canterbury earthquake sequence. We are now in the process of revising that national model. In this process we are investigating several of the fundamental assumptions in traditional PSHA and in how we modelled hazard in the past. For this project, we have three main focuses: 1) how do we design an optimal combination of multiple sources of information to produce the best forecast of earthquake rates in the next 50 years: can we improve upon a simple hybrid of fault sources and background sources, and can we better handle the uncertainties in the data and models (e.g., fault segmentation, frequency-magnitude distributions, time-dependence & clustering, low strain-rate areas, and subduction zone modelling)? 2) developing revised and new ground-motion predictions models including better capturing of epistemic uncertainty – a key focus in this work is developing a new strong ground motion catalogue for model development; and 3) how can we best quantify if changes we have made in our modelling are truly improvements? Throughout this process we are working toward incorporating numerical modelling results from physics based synthetic seismicity and ground-motion models.
This paper presents the ongoing development of a new 3D seismic velocity model of Canterbury, New Zealand. The model explicitly represents the Canterbury sedimentary basin, and other significant geologic horizons, which are expected to have important implications on observed ground motions. The model utilizes numerous sources of data, including 3D regional tomography with a variable-depth inferred Moho, seismic reflection survey lines, geotechnical boreholes and well logs, spectral analysis of surface waves, and CPT logs which provide velocity constraints over their respective ranges of application. The model provides P- and S-wave velocity and density (i.e. Vp, Vs and p) over a grid of input points, and is presently being utilized in broadband ground motion simulations of the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes. Comparison of simulated ground motions with those observed in the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes will help provide a better understanding of the salient physical processes which characterized the unique set of strong ground motions recorded in this sequence of earthquake events.
