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Research Papers, Lincoln University

Tree mortality is a fundamental process governing forest dynamics, but understanding tree mortality patterns is challenging because large, long-term datasets are required. Describing size-specific mortality patterns can be especially difficult, due to few trees in larger size classes. We used permanent plot data from Nothofagus solandri var. cliffortioides (mountain beech) forest on the eastern slopes of the Southern Alps, New Zealand, where the fates of trees on 250 plots of 0.04 ha were followed, to examine: (1) patterns of size-specific mortality over three consecutive periods spanning 30 years, each characterised by different disturbance, and (2) the strength and direction of neighbourhood crowding effects on sizespecific mortality rates. We found that the size-specific mortality function was U-shaped over the 30-year period as well as within two shorter periods characterised by small-scale pinhole beetle and windthrow disturbance. During a third period, characterised by earthquake disturbance, tree mortality was less size dependent. Small trees (,20 cm in diameter) were more likely to die, in all three periods, if surrounded by a high basal area of larger neighbours, suggesting that sizeasymmetric competition for light was a major cause of mortality. In contrast, large trees ($20 cm in diameter) were more likely to die in the first period if they had few neighbours, indicating that positive crowding effects were sometimes important for survival of large trees. Overall our results suggest that temporal variability in size-specific mortality patterns, and positive interactions between large trees, may sometimes need to be incorporated into models of forest dynamics.

Articles, UC QuakeStudies

A plan which outlines the processes and IT applications and services required to manage the SCIRT programme. The first version of this plan was produced on 9 August 2011.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Overview of SeisFinder SeisFinder is an open-source web service developed by QuakeCoRE and the University of Canterbury, focused on enabling the extraction of output data from computationally intensive earthquake resilience calculations. Currently, SeisFinder allows users to select historical or future events and retrieve ground motion simulation outputs for requested geographical locations. This data can be used as input for other resilience calculations, such as dynamic response history analysis. SeisFinder was developed using Django, a high-level python web framework, and uses a postgreSQL database. Because our large-scale computationally-intensive numerical ground motion simulations produce big data, the actual data is stored in file systems, while the metadata is stored in the database. The basic SeisFinder architecture is shown in Figure 1.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

A poster in Kaiapoi showing the estimated timeframe for, and location of, likely residential land developments in Kaiapoi, the wider Waimakariri District and in the rural residential areas, based on major planning and subdivision applications with the Waimakariri Council as at February 2012.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

Critical infrastructure networks are highly relied on by society such that any disruption to service can have major social and economic implications. Furthermore, these networks are becoming increasingly dependent on each other for normal operation such that an outage or asset failure in one system can easily propagate and cascade across others resulting in widespread disruptions in terms of both magnitude and spatial reach. It is the vulnerability of these networks to disruptions and the corresponding complexities in recovery processes which provide direction to this research. This thesis comprises studies contributing to two areas (i) the modelling of national scale in-terdependent infrastructure systems undergoing major disruptions, and (ii) the tracking and quantification of infrastructure network recovery trajectories following major disruptions. Firstly, methods are presented for identifying nationally significant systemic vulnerabilities and incorporating expert knowledge into the quantification of infrastructure interdependency mod-elling and simulation. With application to the interdependent infrastructures networks across New Zealand, the magnitudes and spatial extents of disruption are investigated. Results high-light the importance in considering interdependencies when assessing disruptive risks and vul-nerabilities in disaster planning applications and prioritising investment decisions for enhancing resilience of national networks. Infrastructure dependencies are further studied in the context of recovery from major disruptions through the analysis of curves measuring network functionality over time. Continued studies into the properties of recovery curves across a database of global natural disasters produce statistical models for predicting the trajectory and expected recovery times. Finally, the use of connectivity based metrics for quantifying infrastructure system functionality during recovery are considered with a case study application to the Christchurch Earthquake (February 22, 2011) wastewater network response.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

Utility managers are always looking for appropriate tools to estimate seismic damage in wastewater networks located in earthquake prone areas. Fragility curves, as an appropriate tool, are recommended for seismic vulnerability analysis of buried pipelines, including pressurised and unpressurised networks. Fragility curves are developed in pressurised networks mainly for water networks. Fragility curves are also recommended for seismic analysis in unpressurised networks. Applying fragility curves in unpressurised networks affects accuracy of seismic damage estimation. This study shows limitations of these curves in unpressurised networks. Multiple case study analysis was applied to demonstrate the limitations of the application of fragility curves in unpressurised networks in New Zealand. Four wastewater networks within New Zealand were selected as case studies and various fragility curves used for seismic damage estimation. Observed damage in unpressurised networks after the 2007 earthquake in Gisborne and the 2010 earthquake in Christchurch demonstrate the appropriateness of the applied fragility curves to New Zealand wastewater networks. This study shows that the application of fragility curves, which are developed from pressurised networks, cannot be accurately used for seismic damage assessment in unpressurised wastewater networks. This study demonstrated the effects of different parameters on seismic damage vulnerability of unpressurised networks.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

This thesis presents the application of data science techniques, especially machine learning, for the development of seismic damage and loss prediction models for residential buildings. Current post-earthquake building damage evaluation forms are developed for a particular country in mind. The lack of consistency hinders the comparison of building damage between different regions. A new paper form has been developed to address the need for a global universal methodology for post-earthquake building damage assessment. The form was successfully trialled in the street ‘La Morena’ in Mexico City following the 2017 Puebla earthquake. Aside from developing a framework for better input data for performance based earthquake engineering, this project also extended current techniques to derive insights from post-earthquake observations. Machine learning (ML) was applied to seismic damage data of residential buildings in Mexico City following the 2017 Puebla earthquake and in Christchurch following the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence (CES). The experience showcased that it is readily possible to develop empirical data only driven models that can successfully identify key damage drivers and hidden underlying correlations without prior engineering knowledge. With adequate maintenance, such models have the potential to be rapidly and easily updated to allow improved damage and loss prediction accuracy and greater ability for models to be generalised. For ML models developed for the key events of the CES, the model trained using data from the 22 February 2011 event generalised the best for loss prediction. This is thought to be because of the large number of instances available for this event and the relatively limited class imbalance between the categories of the target attribute. For the CES, ML highlighted the importance of peak ground acceleration (PGA), building age, building size, liquefaction occurrence, and soil conditions as main factors which affected the losses in residential buildings in Christchurch. ML also highlighted the influence of liquefaction on the buildings losses related to the 22 February 2011 event. Further to the ML model development, the application of post-hoc methodologies was shown to be an effective way to derive insights for ML algorithms that are not intrinsically interpretable. Overall, these provide a basis for the development of ‘greybox’ ML models.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

Micro - electro - mechanical system (MEMS) based accelerometers are now frequently used in many different parts of our day - to - day lives. It is also increasingly being used for structural testing applications. Researchers have had res ervation of using these devices as they are relatively untested, but now with the wider adoption, it provides a much cheaper and more versatile tool for structural engineering researchers. A number of damaged buildings in the Christchurch Central Business District (CBD) were instrumented with a number of low - cost MEMS accelerometers after the major Christchurch earthquakes. The accelerometers captured extremely high quality building response data as the buildings experienced thousands of aftershocks. This d ata set was amongst one of only a handful of data set s available around the world which provides building response data subjected to real ground motion. Furthermore, due to technological advances, a much larger than usual number of accelerometers has been deployed making the data set one of the most comprehensive available. This data set is utilised to extract modal parameters of the buildings. This paper summarises the operating requirements and preference for using such accelerometers for experimental mod al analysis. The challenges for adapting MEMS based devices for successful modal parameters identification are also discussed.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

The performance of retrofitted unreinforced masonry (URM) bearing wall buildings in Christchurch is examined, considering ground motion recordings from multiple events. Suggestions for how the experiences in Christchurch might be relevant to retrofit practices common to New Zealand, U.S. and Canada are also provided. Whilst the poor performance of unretrofitted URM buildings in earthquakes is well known, much less is known about how retrofitted URM buildings perform when subjected to strong ground shaking.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

This paper analyses the city of Christchurch, New Zealand, which has been through dramatic changes since it was struck by a series of earthquakes of different intensities between 2010 and 2011. The objective is to develop a deeper understanding of resilience by looking at changes in green and grey infrastructures. The study can be helpful to reveal a way of doing comparative analysis using resilience as a theoretical framework. In this way, it might be possible to assess the blueprint of future master plans by considering how important the interplay between green and grey infrastructure is for the resilience capacity of cities.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

Five years on since the first major earthquake struck the Canterbury region, the reconstruction is well advanced. Christchurch is a city in transition. This report considers trends in resourcing and employment practice of Canterbury construction organisations in response to the projected market changes (2015-2016). The report draws on the interviews with 18 personnel from 16 construction organisations and recovery agencies in October 2015. It provides a summary of perceived changes in the construction market in Canterbury, evidence of what steps construction businesses have been taking, how they have prepared for likely changes in the reconstruction sector, as well as the perceived alignment of public policies with the industry response.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Existing unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings are often composed of traditional construction techniques, with poor connections between walls and diaphragms that results in poor performance when subjected to seismic actions. In these cases the application of the common equivalent static procedure is not applicable because it is not possible to assure “box like” behaviour of the structure. In such conditions the ultimate strength of the structure relies on the behaviour of the macro-elements that compose the deformation mechanisms of the whole structure. These macroelements are a single or combination of structural elements of the structure which are bonded one to each other. The Canterbury earthquake sequence was taken as a reference to estimate the most commonly occurring collapse mechanisms found in New Zealand URM buildings in order to define the most appropriate macroelements.

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

Perimeter Moment resisting steel frames (PMRSFs) are a commonly used seismic resisting system, placed around the perimeter of the building for maximum torsional stiffness. They are typically designed as “strong column weak beam” systems with fixed column bases. When subjected to severe earthquake demand, sufficient to push the beams into the inelastic range, it is expected that plastic hinging at the column bases will occur. However, the response of PMRSF systems to the severe 2010/2011 Christchurch earthquake series did not generate column base hinging in systems which exhibited beam yielding.