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Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The potential for a gastroenteritis outbreak in a post-earthquake environment may increase because of compromised infrastructure services, contaminated liquefaction (lateral spreading and surface ejecta), and the presence of gastroenteritis agents in the drinking water network. A population in a post-earthquake environment might be seriously affected by gastroenteritis because it has a short incubation period (about 10 hours). The potential for a gastroenteritis outbreak in a post-earthquake environment may increase because of compromised infrastructure services, contaminated liquefaction (lateral spreading and surface ejecta), and the presence of gastroenteritis agents in the drinking water network. A population in a post-earthquake environment might be seriously affected by gastroenteritis because it has a short incubation period (about 10 hours). The aim of this multidisciplinary research was to retrospectively analyse the gastroenteritis prevalence following the February 22, 2011 earthquake in Christchurch. The first focus was to assess whether earthquake-induced infrastructure damage, liquefaction, and gastroenteritis agents spatially explained the recorded gastroenteritis cases over the period of 35 days following the February 22, 2011 earthquake in Christchurch. The gastroenteritis agents considered in this study were Escherichia coli found in the drinking water supply (MPN/100mL) and Non-Compliant Free Associated Chlorine (FAC-NC) (less than <0.02mg/L). The second focus was the protocols that averted a gastroenteritis outbreak at three Emergency Centres (ECs): Burnside High School Emergency Centre (BEC); Cowles Stadium Emergency Centre (CEC); and Linwood High School Emergency Centre (LEC). Using a mixed-method approach, gastroenteritis point prevalence and the considered factors were quantitatively analysed. The qualitative analysis involved interviewing 30 EC staff members. The data was evaluated by adopting the Grounded Theory (GT) approach. Spatial analysis of considered factors showed that highly damaged CAUs were statistically clustered as demonstrated by Moran’s I statistic and hot spot analysis. Further modelling showed that gastroenteritis point prevalence clustering could not be fully explained by infrastructure damage alone, and other factors influenced the recorded gastroenteritis point prevalence. However, the results of this research suggest that there was a tenuous, indirect relationship between recorded gastroenteritis point prevalence and the considered factors: earthquake-induced infrastructure damage, liquefaction and FAC-NC. Two ECs were opened as part of the post-earthquake response in areas with severe infrastructure damage and liquefaction (BEC and CEC). The third EC (CEC) provided important lessons that were learnt from the previous September 4, 2010 earthquake, and implemented after the February 22, 2011 earthquake. Two types of interwoven themes identified: direct and indirect. The direct themes were preventive protocols and indirect themes included type of EC building (school or a sports stadium), and EC staff. The main limitations of the research were Modifiable Areal Units (MAUP), data detection, and memory loss. This research provides a practical method that can be adapted to assess gastroenteritis risk in a post-earthquake environment. Thus, this mixed method approach can be used in other disaster contexts to study gastroenteritis prevalence, and can serve as an appendage to the existing framework for assessing infectious diseases. Furthermore, the lessons learnt from qualitative analysis can inform the current infectious disease management plans, designed for a post-disaster response in New Zealand and internationally Using a mixed-method approach, gastroenteritis point prevalence and the considered factors were quantitatively analysed. A damage profile was created by amalgamating different types of damage for the considered factors for each Census Area Unit (CAU) in Christchurch. The damage profile enabled the application of a variety of statistical methods which included Moran’s I , Hot Spot (HS) analysis, Spearman’s Rho, and Besag–York–Mollié Model using a range of software. The qualitative analysis involved interviewing 30 EC staff members. The data was evaluated by adopting the Grounded Theory (GT) approach. Spatial analysis of considered factors showed that highly damaged CAUs were statistically clustered as demonstrated by Moran’s I statistic and hot spot analysis. Further modelling showed that gastroenteritis point prevalence clustering could not be fully explained by infrastructure damage alone, and other factors influenced the recorded gastroenteritis point prevalence. However, the results of this research suggest that there was a tenuous, indirect relationship between recorded gastroenteritis point prevalence and the considered factors: earthquake-induced infrastructure damage, liquefaction and FAC-NC. Two ECs were opened as part of the post-earthquake response in areas with severe infrastructure damage and liquefaction (BEC and CEC). The third EC (CEC) provided important lessons that were learnt from the previous September 4, 2010 earthquake, and implemented after the February 22, 2011 earthquake. The ECs were selected to represent the Christchurch area, and were situated where potential for gastroenteritis was high. BEC represented the western side of Christchurch; whilst, CEC and LEC represented the eastern side, where the potential for gastroenteritis was high according to the outputs of the quantitative spatial modelling. Qualitative analysis from the interviews at the ECs revealed that evacuees were arriving at the ECs with gastroenteritis-like symptoms. Participants believed that those symptoms did not originate at the ECs. Two types of interwoven themes identified: direct and indirect. The direct themes were preventive protocols that included prolific use of hand sanitisers; surveillance; and the services offered. Indirect themes included the EC layout, type of EC building (school or a sports stadium), and EC staff. Indirect themes governed the quality and sustainability of the direct themes implemented, which in turn averted gastroenteritis outbreaks at the ECs. The main limitations of the research were Modifiable Areal Units (MAUP), data detection, and memory loss. It was concluded that gastroenteritis point prevalence following the February 22, 2011 earthquake could not be solely explained by earthquake-induced infrastructure damage, liquefaction, and gastroenteritis causative agents alone. However, this research provides a practical method that can be adapted to assess gastroenteritis risk in a post-earthquake environment. Creating a damage profile for each CAU and using spatial data analysis can isolate vulnerable areas, and qualitative data analysis provides localised information. Thus, this mixed method approach can be used in other disaster contexts to study gastroenteritis prevalence, and can serve as an appendage to the existing framework for assessing infectious diseases. Furthermore, the lessons learnt from qualitative analysis can inform the current infectious disease management plans, designed for a post-disaster response in New Zealand and internationally.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

From small coastal settlements to large cities, communities are exposed to both the direct and indirect consequences of climate-change induced sea-level rise (SLR). Above the ground surface, short- and long-term coastal effects of SLR are visible and cause damage from flooding, erosion, and loss of habitats and ecosystems. Below the ground surface, the effects are less visible but nonetheless extensive. Groundwater is present at shallow depth in the coastal zone and the effects of SLR on shallow groundwater threaten water security, agricultural production and infrastructure. Groundwater flooding, a hydrological hazard results from the process of water table rise, where the groundwater surface intersects or goes above the land surface due to changing conditions. The coastal zone is a complex dynamic space between saltwater and freshwater environments above and below the ground surface, and coastal groundwater hazards are intensified due to SLR. However, current monitoring of coastal shallow groundwater levels and salinity does not occur sufficiently to mitigate and adapt to the groundwater hazard. This thesis provides insights into the dynamics of coastal shallow groundwater, urban monitoring networks, simulations of water table rise and the issues posed by shallow groundwater changes driven by SLR and effects on flooding. The first study reviewed processes of coastal groundwater rise and simulation tools used to evaluate possible impacts of SLR. The benefits and limitations of the two main methods to assess coastal groundwater rise and its contribution to flooding - spatial interpolation and numerical tools - were discussed. The review highlighted the need for methodology comparisons between spatial interpolation and numerical tools to guide future work. The simulation tools that are used to evaluate changes in urban hydrogeology due to SLR do not specifically estimate groundwater flooding. Current monitoring practices do not capture evidence for groundwater rise with SLR. Therefore, the assessment methods need to rely on improved coastal groundwater monitoring networks focused on water quality, saltwater intrusion, and continuous groundwater levels records near the coastline, tidally influenced surface water bodies, and critical infrastructure. The second study focused on an urban shallow groundwater monitoring network and assessed its development, current physical condition and usefulness for SLR research. Following the 2010-2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence, in Otautahi Christchurch, ¯ Aotearoa New Zealand, shallow groundwater data acquisition and establishment of a geotechnical database provided unprecedented information on subsurface conditions. The monitoring infrastructure provided high spatio-temporal resolution records of shallow groundwater levels, which opened the field of New Zealand-based urban groundwater studies. Field surveys and digital information reviews showed that the monitoring net work was in overall good condition and robust, despite some maintenance issues. The dataset held by the city and regional councils should be more widely used to benefit the community, urban water management, researchers and practitioners, facing decisions to adapt and protect coastal areas from the impacts of climate change and SLR. The third study determined characteristics of shallow groundwater, including spatial and temporal trends in depths to groundwater and their relationship to natural and an thropogenic stressors. The study used depth to groundwater measurements from the uniquely extensive and densely spaced monitoring network in Otautahi Christchurch, ¯ Aotearoa New Zealand. Data-driven analysis approaches were applied, including spa tial interpolation, autocorrelation, clustering, cross-correlation, and trend analysis. This comprehensive approach revealed discernible clusters and trends within the dataset, pro viding valuable insights into the spatial and temporal variability of shallow groundwater in urban coastal settings. Responses to stresses such as rainfall events and stream flow were successfully classified using clustering analysis, while anthropogenic influences were more challenging. The primary feature in hydrograph classification proved to be the prox imity to tidal rivers and their correlation with tidal signals. This study highlighted the importance of monitoring coastal groundwater and the need for a better understanding of its effects on urban infrastructure and the built environment. The fourth study focused on simulating the effects of SLR on water table rise. These processes may lead to groundwater flooding and infrastructure challenges. A numerical model was used to assess the transient water table movement in response to SLR. Various SLR scenarios and rates were used to simulate the magnitudes and rates of water table rise, considering a range of aquifer parameters for both fixed-head and fixed-flux inland boundary conditions. The magnitudes and rates of water table rise were always less than but proportional to SLR and decreased with distance from the coastline. The magnitude and rate of water table rise in response to SLR were the largest for fixed flux inland boundary conditions, but it takes a long time for conditions to equilibrate. Fixed-flux conditions were found to pose a greater hazard as the maximum impact may not be experienced for decades, posing challenges to planners and managers of coastal groundwater systems. Adding a drain reduced the magnitude and rate of water table rise, more on the inland side than on the coastal side. The final study examined the key impacts of SLR on coastal shallow groundwater, and subsequent challenges faced by infrastructure asset managers. The study showed that current and future issues such as saltwater intrusion, flooding, and earthquake liquefaction hazard due to groundwater are exacerbated by climate change-driven SLR. A key issue is determining who will take responsibility for shallow groundwater management in areas with multiple and overlapping local government jurisdictions. Another key finding is that current techniques to manage groundwater in infrastructure construction/operation and land management will be applied in future, and challenges to coastal infrastructure adaptation will be posed by political and economic considerations rather than technical understanding.