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Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

Road networks are highly exposed to natural hazard events, which can lead to significant economic and social consequences. In New Zealand, events such as the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake, and the Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have demonstrated the severe consequences of road network disruptions. Traditional post event economic assessments often focus solely on clean-up and repair costs, neglecting the broader and more enduring impacts these events can have. Furthermore, business cases for resilience investments usually fail when quantifying the economic benefits of mitigation strategies, due to the underestimation of road disruption consequences. Importantly, not all road link disruptions contribute equally to these consequences, making the identification of critical road links a key step in resilience focused investment prioritization. Furthermore, traditional transportation asset management typically evaluates the life cycle of roads under normal conditions, such as traffic loads and standard environmental factors, while neglecting the influence of natural hazards. However, these events can significantly alter road deterioration and increase maintenance costs, emphasizing the need for integrating risk and resilience into transportation asset management approaches. This thesis presents a methodology to evaluate road criticality by assessing the economic consequences of road disruptions in combination with a hazard model in a prioritization index. Initially, the consequences are quantified through increased travel time, higher vehicle operating costs, and increased gas emissions. Thereafter, a new consequence model is introduced to estimate the increase in maintenance costs on alternative routes that absorb diverted traffic following a disruption. These consequence models are initially applied in a 'full-scan' analysis approach, where each road link is removed in turn to quantify its potential impact and, therefore, its criticality. Subsequently, a hazard model is integrated to develop a road prioritization index that combines the expected impacts of road disruptions, the individual road link criticality, and the probability of occurrence of natural hazard events. This index is designed to help road agencies in prioritizing mitigation strategies. Furthermore, the proposed methodology can also be applied to quantify the indirect economic impacts of natural hazard events. The methodology is demonstrated using New Zealand’s South Island inter-urban network as a case study, incorporating an earthquake-induced landslide model, with Python based simulations, providing road agencies a valuable tool to quantify the economic benefits of resilience investments

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

A video of a presentation by Associate Professor John Vargo during the fifth plenary of the 2016 People in Disasters Conference. Vargo is a senior researcher and co-leader of the Resilient Organisations Research Programme at the University of Canterbury. The presentation is titled, "Organisational Resilience is more than just Business Continuity".The abstract for this presentation reads as follows: Business Continuity Management is well-established process in many larger organisations and a key element in their emergency planning. Research carried out by resilient organisations follow the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury Earthquakes show that most small organisations did not have a business continuity plan (BCP), yet many of these organisations did survive the massive disruptions following the earthquakes. They were resilient to these catastrophic events, but in the absence of a BCP. This research also found that many of the organisations with BCP's, struggled to use them effectively when facing real events that did not align with the BCP. Although the BCPs did a good job of preparing organisations to deal with technology and operational disruptions, there was virtually no coverage for the continuity of people. Issues surrounding staff welfare and engagement were amongst the most crucial issues faced by Canterbury organisations, yet impacts of societal and personal disruption did not feature in BCPs. Resilience is a systematic way of looking at how an organization can survive a crisis and thrive in an uncertain world. Business continuity is an important aspect for surviving the crisis, but it is only part of the bigger picture addressed by organisational resilience. This presentation will show how organizational experiences in the Canterbury earthquakes support the need to move to a 'Business Continuity' for the '21st Century', one that incorporates more aspects of resilience, especially the 'people' areas of leadership, culture, staff welfare, and engagement.