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Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

Earthquakes are insured only with public sector involvement in high-income countries where the risk of earthquakes is perceived to be high. The proto-typical examples of this public sector involvement are the public earthquake insurance schemes in California, Japan, and New Zealand (NZ). Each of these insurance programs is structured differently, and the purpose of this paper is to examine these differences using a concrete case-study, the sequence of earthquakes that occurred in the Christchurch, New Zealand, in 2011. This event turned out to have been the most heavily insured earthquake event in history. We examine what would have been the outcome of the earthquakes had the system of insurance in NZ been different. In particular, we focus on the public earthquake insurance programs in California (the California Earthquake Authority - CEA), and in Japan (Japanese Earthquake Reinsurance - JER). Overall, the aggregate cost to the public insurer in NZ was $NZ 11.1 billion in its response to the earthquakes. If a similar-sized disaster event had occurred in Japan and California, homeowners would have received $NZ 2.5 billion and $NZ 1.4 billion from the JER and CEA, respectively. We further describe the spatial and distributive patterns of these different scenarios.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

An artist's impression of an installation that forms part of the '60 Lights Market' at the LUXCITY event. Coordinators: Daniele Abreu e Lima and Sam Stringlen; students: Chi Tran, Aria Jansen, Naomi Snelling, Rebecca Wyborn

Images, UC QuakeStudies

An artist's impression of an installation that forms part of the '60 Lights Market' at the LUXCITY event. Coordinators: Daniele Abreu e Lima and Michael Smith; students: Alex Heperi, Gagan Saini, Shamal Nanji, Xavier Apelinga

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Despite over a century of study, the relationship between lunar cycles and earthquakes remains controversial and difficult to quantitatively investigate. Perhaps as a consequence, major earthquakes around the globe are frequently followed by 'prediction' claims, using lunar cycles, that generate media furore and pressure scientists to provide resolute answers. The 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes in New Zealand were no exception; significant media attention was given to lunarderived earthquake predictions by non-scientists, even though the predictions were merely 'opinions' and were not based on any statistically robust temporal or causal relationships. This thesis provides a framework for studying lunisolar earthquake temporal relationships by developing replicable statistical methodology based on peer reviewed literature. Notable in the methodology is a high accuracy ephemeris, called ECLPSE, designed specifically by the author for use on earthquake catalogs, and a model for performing phase angle analysis. The statistical tests were carried out on two 'declustered' seismic catalogs, one containing the aftershocks from the Mw7.1 earthquake in Canterbury, and the other containing Australian seismicity from the past two decades. Australia is an intraplate setting far removed from active plate boundaries and Canterbury is proximal to a plate boundary, thus allowing for comparison based on tectonic regime and corresponding tectonic loading rate. No strong, conclusive, statistical correlations were found at any level of the earthquake catalogs, looking at large events, onshore events, offshore events, and the fault type of some events. This was concluded using Schuster's test of significance with α=5% and analysis of standard deviations. A few weak correlations, with p-5-10% of rejecting the null hypothesis, and anomalous standard deviations were found, but these are difficult to interpret. The results invalidate the statistical robustness of 'earthquake predictions' using lunisolar parameters in this instance. An ambitious researcher could improve on the quality of the results and on the range of parameters analyzed. The conclusions of the thesis raise more questions than answers, but the thesis provides an adaptable methodology that can be used to further investigation the problem.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

A collapsed section of the Cranmer Courts on the corner of Montreal Street and Kilmore Street. Safety fences have been erected around the building to prevent the public getting close enough to it to be endangered by falling masonry in the event of another earthquake.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

The front of Liquidity Bar on Oxford Terrace, a yellow-sticker in the window. Inspecting engineers have spray-painted the windows with 'TF3 clear 24/2 0720' and 'USA 2'. A poster stuck on the front right wall advertises a music event from before the February 2011 earthquake.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Plumbers say EQC paying bills too slowly, Earthquake Commission defends its claim process, Events centre, not stimulus package, for West Coast, Harawira calls meeting to consider forming new party, Government, Auckland council split over development, Search work in Christchurch central city nears completion, Power in South Christchurch threatened by cut cable.

Articles, UC QuakeStudies

An outline, created in 2011, of the levels of service and condition of the horizontal infrastructure within the central city, providing a broad indication of damage, service levels provided to residents and business owners, and used to estimate the cost of repairs following the earthquake events.

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

A video clip of a large-scale, temporary installation titled Synthesis. The installation is on the corner of High Street. The installation was created by students from CPIT for CityUps - a 'city of the future for one night only', and the main event of FESTA 2014.