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Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Natural catastrophes are increasing worldwide. They are becoming more frequent but also more severe and impactful on our built environment leading to extensive damage and losses. Earthquake events account for the smallest part of natural events; nevertheless seismic damage led to the most fatalities and significant losses over the period 1981-2016 (Munich Re). Damage prediction is helpful for emergency management and the development of earthquake risk mitigation projects. Recent design efforts focused on the application of performance-based design engineering where damage estimation methodologies use fragility and vulnerability functions. However, the approach does not explicitly specify the essential criteria leading to economic losses. There is thus a need for an improved methodology that finds the critical building elements related to significant losses. The here presented methodology uses data science techniques to identify key building features that contribute to the bulk of losses. It uses empirical data collected on site during earthquake reconnaissance mission to train a machine learning model that can further be used for the estimation of building damage post-earthquake. The first model is developed for Christchurch. Empirical building damage data from the 2010-2011 earthquake events is analysed to find the building features that contributed the most to damage. Once processed, the data is used to train a machine-learning model that can be applied to estimate losses in future earthquake events.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

A photograph of the earthquake damage to the Observatory tower at the Christchurch Arts Centre. The top two storeys of the tower collapsed during the 22 February 2011 earthquake and the rubble spilled into the courtyard in front. A digger was used to clear the rubble away from the building. A tarpaulin has been draped over the top of the tower and the roof of the building behind.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

The University of Canterbury's E-Learning team's temporary office in the James Hight building. The photographer comments, "First looks at our new temporary (maybe) office space. Our group will stay here until April or May 2011, then will move to another floor in the Central Library. Foyer lifts etc. Female toilets are off the foyer to the left. These lifts start at Level 2 of the Library, and are heavily used by students. (Once the building is repaired after the earthquake; several floors are still in a mess)".

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

A significant portion of economic loss from the Canterbury Earthquake sequence in 2010-2011 was attributed to losses to residential buildings. These accounted for approximately $12B of a total $40B economic losses (Horspool, 2016). While a significant amount of research effort has since been aimed at research in the commercial sector, little has been done to reduce the vulnerability of the residential building stock.

Images, eqnz.chch.2010

Demolition (Deconstruction) of the partially pancaked multi story car park above the old Smith City building. Taken from the Moorhouse-Colombo Street flyover.