In this thesis, focus is given to develop methodologies for rapidly estimating specific components of loss and downtime functions. The thesis proposes methodologies for deriving loss functions by (i) considering individual component performance; (ii) grouping them as per their performance characteristics; and (iii) applying them to similar building usage categories. The degree of variation in building stock and understanding their characteristics are important factors to be considered in the loss estimation methodology and the field surveys carried out to collect data add value to the study. To facilitate developing ‘downtime’ functions, this study investigates two key components of downtime: (i) time delay from post-event damage assessment of properties; and (ii) time delay in settling the insurance claims lodged. In these two areas, this research enables understanding of critical factors that influence certain aspects of downtime and suggests approaches to quantify those factors. By scrutinising the residential damage insurance claims data provided by the Earthquake Commission (EQC) for the 2010- 2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES), this work provides insights into various processes of claims settlement, the time taken to complete them and the EQC loss contributions to building stock in Christchurch city and Canterbury region. The study has shown diligence in investigating the EQC insurance claim data obtained from the CES to get new insights and build confidence in the models developed and the results generated. The first stage of this research develops contribution functions (probabilistic relationships between the expected losses for a wide range of building components and the building’s maximum response) for common types of claddings used in New Zealand buildings combining the probabilistic density functions (developed using the quantity of claddings measured from Christchurch buildings), fragility functions (obtained from the published literature) and cost functions (developed based on inputs from builders) through Monte Carlo simulations. From the developed contribution functions, glazing, masonry veneer, monolithic and precast concrete cladding systems are found to incur 50% loss at inter-storey drift levels equal to 0.027, 0.003, 0.005 and 0.011, respectively. Further, the maximum expected cladding loss for glazing, masonry veneer, monolithic, precast concrete cladding systems are found to be 368.2, 331.9, 365.0, and 136.2 NZD per square meter of floor area, respectively. In the second stage of this research, a detailed cost breakdown of typical buildings designed and built for different purposes is conducted. The contributions of structural and non- structural components to the total building cost are compared for buildings of different usages, and based on the similar ratios of non-structural performance group costs to the structural performance group cost, four-building groups are identified; (i) Structural components dominant group: outdoor sports, stadiums, parkings and long-span warehouses, (ii) non- structural drift-sensitive components dominant group: houses, single-storey suburban buildings (all usages), theatres/halls, workshops and clubhouses, (iii) non-structural acceleration- sensitive components dominant group: hospitals, research labs, museums and retail/cold stores, and (iv) apartments, hotels, offices, industrials, indoor sports, classrooms, devotionals and aquariums. By statistically analysing the cost breakdowns, performance group weighting factors are proposed for structural, and acceleration-sensitive and drift-sensitive non-structural components for all four building groups. Thus proposed building usage groupings and corresponding weighting factors facilitate rapid seismic loss estimation of any type of building given the EDPs at storey levels are known. A model for the quantification of post-earthquake inspection duration is developed in the third stage of this research. Herein, phase durations for the three assessment phases (one rapid impact and two rapid building) are computed using the number of buildings needing inspections, the number of engineers involved in inspections and a phase duration coefficient (which considers the median building inspection time, efficiency of engineer and the number of engineers involved in each assessment teams). The proposed model can be used: (i) by national/regional authorities to decide the length of the emergency period following a major earthquake, and estimate the number of engineers required to conduct a post-earthquake inspection within the desired emergency period, and (ii) to quantify the delay due to inspection for the downtime modelling framework. The final stage of this research investigates the repair costs and insurance claim settlement time for damaged residential buildings in the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence. Based on the EQC claim settlement process, claims are categorized into three groups; (i) Small Claims: claims less than NZD15,000 which were settled through cash payment, (ii) Medium Claims: claims less than NZD100,000 which were managed through Canterbury Home Repair Programme (CHRP), and (iii) Large Claims: claims above NZD100,000 which were managed by an insurance provider. The regional loss ratio (RLR) for greater Christchurch for three events inducing shakings of approximate seismic intensities 6, 7, and 8 are found to be 0.013, 0.066, and 0.171, respectively. Furthermore, the claim duration (time between an event and the claim lodgement date), assessment duration (time between the claim lodgement day and the most recent assessment day), and repair duration (time between the most recent assessment day and the repair completion day) for the insured residential buildings in the region affected by the Canterbury earthquake sequence is found to be in the range of 0.5-4 weeks, 1.5- 5 months, and 1-3 years, respectively. The results of this phase will provide useful information to earthquake engineering researchers working on seismic risk/loss and insurance modelling.
Mitigating the cascade of environmental damage caused by the movement of excess reactive nitrogen (N) from land to sea is currently limited by difficulties in precisely and accurately measuring N fluxes due to variable rates of attenuation (denitrification) during transport. This thesis develops the use of the natural abundance isotopic composition of nitrate (δ15N and δ18O of NO₃-) to integrate the spatialtemporal variability inherent to denitrification, creating an empirical framework for evaluating attenuation during land to water NO₃- transfers. This technique is based on the knowledge that denitrifiers kinetically discriminate against 'heavy' forms of both N and oxygen (O), creating a parallel enrichment in isotopes of both species as the reaction progresses. This discrimination can be quantitatively related to NO₃- attenuation by isotopic enrichment factors (εdenit). However, while these principles are understood, use of NO₃- isotopes to quantify denitrification fluxes in non-marine environments has been limited by, 1) poor understanding of εdenit variability, and, 2) difficulty in distinguishing the extent of mixing of isotopically distinct sources from the imprint of denitrification. Through a combination of critical literature analysis, mathematical modelling, mesocosm to field scale experiments, and empirical studies on two river systems over distance and time, these short comings are parametrised and a template for future NO₃- isotope based attenuation measurements outlined. Published εdenit values (n = 169) are collated in the literature analysis presented in Chapter 2. By evaluating these values in the context of known controllers on the denitrification process, it is found that the magnitude of εdenit, for both δ15N and δ18O, is controlled by, 1) biology, 2) mode of transport through the denitrifying zone (diffusion v. advection), and, 3) nitrification (spatial-temporal distance between nitrification and denitrification). Based on the outcomes of this synthesis, the impact of the three factors identified as controlling εdenit are quantified in the context of freshwater systems by combining simple mathematical modelling and lab incubation studies (comparison of natural variation in biological versus physical expression). Biologically-defined εdenit, measured in sediments collected from four sites along a temperate stream and from three tropical submerged paddy fields, varied from -3‰ to -28‰ depending on the site’s antecedent carbon content. Following diffusive transport to aerobic surface water, εdenit was found to become more homogeneous, but also lower, with the strength of the effect controlled primarily by diffusive distance and the rate of denitrification in the sediments. I conclude that, given the variability in fractionation dynamics at all levels, applying a range of εdenit from -2‰ to -10‰ provides more accurate measurements of attenuation than attempting to establish a site-specific value. Applying this understanding of denitrification's fractionation dynamics, four field studies were conducted to measure denitrification/ NO₃- attenuation across diverse terrestrial → freshwater systems. The development of NO₃- isotopic signatures (i.e., the impact of nitrification, biological N fixation, and ammonia volatilisation on the isotopic 'imprint' of denitrification) were evaluated within two key agricultural regions: New Zealand grazed pastures (Chapter 4) and Philippine lowland submerged rice production (Chapter 5). By measuring the isotopic composition of soil ammonium, NO₃- and volatilised ammonia following the bovine urine deposition, it was determined that the isotopic composition of NO₃ - leached from grazed pastures is defined by the balance between nitrification and denitrification, not ammonia volatilisation. Consequently, NO₃- created within pasture systems was predicted to range from +10‰ (δ15N)and -0.9‰ (δ18O) for non-fertilised fields (N limited) to -3‰ (δ15N) and +2‰ (δ18O) for grazed fertilised fields (N saturated). Denitrification was also the dominant determinant of NO₃- signatures in the Philippine rice paddy. Using a site-specific εdenit for the paddy, N inputs versus attenuation were able to be calculated, revealing that >50% of available N in the top 10 cm of soil was denitrified during land preparation, and >80% of available N by two weeks post-transplanting. Intriguingly, this denitrification was driven by rapid NO₃- production via nitrification of newly mineralised N during land preparation activities. Building on the relevant range of εdenit established in Chapters 2 and 3, as well as the soil-zone confirmation that denitrification was the primary determinant of NO₃- isotopic composition, two long-term longitudinal river studies were conducted to assess attenuation during transport. In Chapter 6, impact and recovery dynamics in an urban stream were assessed over six months along a longitudinal impact gradient using measurements of NO₃- dual isotopes, biological populations, and stream chemistry. Within 10 days of the catastrophic Christchurch earthquake, dissolved oxygen in the lowest reaches was <1 mg l⁻¹, in-stream denitrification accelerated (attenuating 40-80% of sewage N), microbial biofilm communities changed, and several benthic invertebrate taxa disappeared. To test the strength of this method for tackling the diffuse, chronic N loading of streams in agricultural regions, two years of longitudinal measurements of NO₃- isotopes were collected. Attenuation was negatively correlated with NO₃- concentration, and was highly dependent on rainfall: 93% of calculated attenuation (20 kg NO₃--N ha⁻¹ y⁻¹) occurred within 48 h of rainfall. The results of these studies demonstrate the power of intense measurements of NO₃- stable isotope for distinguishing temporal and spatial trends in NO₃ - loss pathways, and potentially allow for improved catchment-scale management of agricultural intensification. Overall this work now provides a more cohesive understanding for expanding the use of NO₃- isotopes measurements to generate accurate understandings of the controls on N losses. This information is becoming increasingly important to predict ecosystem response to future changes, such the increasing agricultural intensity needed to meet global food demand, which is occurring synergistically with unpredictable global climate change.
The supply of water following disasters has always been of significant concern to communities. Failure of water systems not only causes difficulties for residents and critical users but may also affect other hard and soft infrastructure and services. The dependency of communities and other infrastructure on the availability of safe and reliable water places even more emphasis on the resilience of water supply systems. This thesis makes two major contributions. First, it proposes a framework for measuring the multifaceted resilience of water systems, focusing on the significance of the characteristics of different communities for the resilience of water supply systems. The proposed framework, known as the CARE framework, consists of eight principal activities: (1) developing a conceptual framework; (2) selecting appropriate indicators; (3) refining the indicators based on data availability; (4) correlation analysis; (5) scaling the indicators; (6) weighting the variables; (7) measuring the indicators; and (8) aggregating the indicators. This framework allows researchers to develop appropriate indicators in each dimension of resilience (i.e., technical, organisational, social, and economic), and enables decision makers to more easily participate in the process and follow the procedure for composite indicator development. Second, it identifies the significant technical, social, organisational and economic factors, and the relevant indicators for measuring these factors. The factors and indicators were gathered through a comprehensive literature review. They were then verified and ranked through a series of interviews with water supply and resilience specialists, social scientists and economists. Vulnerability, redundancy and criticality were identified as the most significant technical factors affecting water supply system robustness, and consequently resilience. These factors were tested for a scenario earthquake of Mw 7.6 in Pukerua Bay in New Zealand. Four social factors and seven indicators were identified in this study. The social factors are individual demands and capacities, individual involvement in the community, violence level in the community, and trust. The indicators are the Giving Index, homicide rate, assault rate, inverse trust in army, inverse trust in police, mean years of school, and perception of crime. These indicators were tested in Chile and New Zealand, which experienced earthquakes in 2010 and 2011 respectively. The social factors were also tested in Vanuatu following TC Pam, which hit the country in March 2015. Interestingly, the organisational dimension contributed the largest number of factors and indicators for measuring water supply resilience to disasters. The study identified six organisational factors and 17 indicators that can affect water supply resilience to disasters. The factors are: disaster precaution; predisaster planning; data availability, data accessibility and information sharing; staff, parts, and equipment availability; pre-disaster maintenance; and governance. The identified factors and their indicators were tested for the case of Christchurch, New Zealand, to understand how organisational capacity affected water supply resilience following the earthquake in February 2011. Governance and availability of critical staff following the earthquake were the strongest organisational factors for the Christchurch City Council, while the lack of early warning systems and emergency response planning were identified as areas that needed to be addressed. Economic capacity and quick access to finance were found to be the main economic factors influencing the resilience of water systems. Quick access to finance is most important in the early stages following a disaster for response and restoration, but its importance declines over time. In contrast, the economic capacity of the disaster struck area and the water sector play a vital role in the subsequent reconstruction phase rather than in the response and restoration period. Indicators for these factors were tested for the case of the February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand. Finally, a new approach to measuring water supply resilience is proposed. This approach measures the resilience of the water supply system based on actual water demand following an earthquake. The demand-based method calculates resilience based on the difference between water demand and system capacity by measuring actual water shortage (i.e., the difference between water availability and demand) following an earthquake.
Previous earthquakes demonstrated destructive effects of soil-structure interaction on structural response. For example, in the 1970 Gediz earthquake in Turkey, part of a factory was demolished in a town 135 km from the epicentre, while no other buildings in the town were damaged. Subsequent investigations revealed that the fundamental period of vibration of the factory was approximately equal to that of the underlying soil. This alignment provided a resonance effect and led to collapse of the structure. Another dramatic example took place in Adapazari, during the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake where several foundations failed due to either bearing capacity exceedance or foundation uplifting, consequently, damaging the structure. Finally, the Christchurch 2012 earthquakes have shown that significant nonlinear action in the soil and soil-foundation interface can be expected due to high levels of seismic excitation and spectral acceleration. This nonlinearity, in turn, significantly influenced the response of the structure interacting with the soil-foundation underneath. Extensive research over more than 35 years has focused on the subject of seismic soil-structure interaction. However, since the response of soil-structure systems to seismic forces is extremely complex, burdened by uncertainties in system parameters and variability in ground motions, the role of soil-structure interaction on the structural response is still controversial. Conventional design procedures suggest that soil-structure interaction effects on the structural response can be conservatively ignored. However, more recent studies show that soil-structure interaction can be either beneficial or detrimental, depending on the soil-structure-earthquake scenarios considered. In view of the above mentioned issues, this research aims to utilise a comprehensive and systematic probabilistic methodology, as the most rational way, to quantify the effects of soil-structure interaction on the structural response considering both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The goal is achieved by examining the response of established rheological single-degree-of-freedom systems located on shallow-foundation and excited by ground motions with different spectral characteristics. In this regard, four main phases are followed. First, the effects of seismic soil-structure interaction on the response of structures with linear behaviour are investigated using a robust stochastic approach. Herein, the soil-foundation interface is modelled by an equivalent linear cone model. This phase is mainly considered to examine the influence of soil-structure interaction on the approach that has been adopted in the building codes for developing design spectrum and defining the seismic forces acting on the structure. Second, the effects of structural nonlinearity on the role of soil-structure interaction in modifying seismic structural response are studied. The same stochastic approach as phase 1 is followed, while three different types of structural force-deflection behaviour are examined. Third, a systematic fashion is carried out to look for any possible correlation between soil, structural, and system parameters and the degree of soil-structure interaction effects on the structural response. An attempt is made to identify the key parameters whose variation significantly affects the structural response. In addition, it is tried to define the critical range of variation of parameters of consequent. Finally, the impact of soil-foundation interface nonlinearity on the soil-structure interaction analysis is examined. In this regard, a newly developed macro-element covering both material and geometrical soil-foundation interface nonlinearity is implemented in a finite-element program Raumoko 3D. This model is then used in an extensive probabilistic simulation to compare the effects of linear and nonlinear soil-structure interaction on the structural response. This research is concluded by reviewing the current design guidelines incorporating soil-structure interaction effects in their design procedures. A discussion is then followed on the inadequacies of current procedures based on the outcomes of this study.
The city of Ōtautahi/Christchurch experienced a series of earthquakes that began on September 4th, 2010. The most damaging event occurred on February 22nd, 2011 but significant earthquakes also occurred on June 13th and December 23rd with aftershocks still occurring well into 2012. The resulting disaster is the second deadliest natural disaster in New Zealand’s history with 185 deaths. During 2011 the Canterbury earthquakes were one of the costliest disasters worldwide with an expected cost of up to $NZ30 billion. Hundreds of commercial buildings and thousands of houses have been destroyed or are to be demolished and extensive repairs are needed for infrastructure to over 100,000 homes. As many as 8,900 people simply abandoned their homes and left the city in the first few months after the February event (Newell, 2012), and as many as 50,000 may leave during 2012. In particular, young whānau and single young women comprised a disproportionate number of these migrants, with evidence of a general movement to the North Island. Te Puni Kōkiri sought a mix of quantitative and qualitative research to examine the social and economic impacts of the Christchurch earthquakes on Māori and their whānau. The result of this work will be a collection of evidence to inform policy to support and assist Māori and their whānau during the recovery/rebuild phases. To that end, this report triangulates available statistical and geographical information with qualitative data gathered over 2010 and 2011 by a series of interviews conducted with Māori who experienced the dramatic events associated with the earthquakes. A Māori research team at Lincoln University was commissioned to undertake the research as they were already engaged in transdisciplinary research (began in the May 2010), that focused on quickly gathering data from a range of Māori who experienced the disaster, including relevant economic, environmental, social and cultural factors in the response and recovery of Māori to these events. Participants for the qualitative research were drawn from Māori whānau who both stayed and left the city. Further data was available from ongoing projects and networks that the Lincoln research team was already involved in, including interviews with Māori first responders and managers operating in the CBD on the day of the February event. Some limited data is also available from younger members of affected whānau. Māori in Ōtautahi/Christchurch City have exhibited their own culturally-attuned collective responses to the disaster. However, it is difficult to ascertain Māori demographic changes due to a lack of robust statistical frameworks but Māori outward migration from the city is estimated to range between 560 and 1,100 people. The mobility displayed by Māori demonstrates an important but unquantified response by whānau to this disaster, with emigration to Australia presenting an attractive option for young Māori, an entrenched phenomenon that correlates to cyclical downturns and the long-term decline of the New Zealand economy. It is estimated that at least 315 Māori have emigrated from the Canterbury region to Australia post-quake, although the disaster itself may be only one of a series of events that has prompted such a decision. Māori children made up more than one in four of the net loss of children aged 6 to 15 years enrolled in schools in Greater Christchurch over the year to June 2011. Research literature identifies depression affecting a small but significant number of children one to two years post-disaster and points to increasing clinical and organisational demands for Māori and other residents of the city. For those residents in the eastern or coastal suburbs – home to many of the city’s Māori population - severe damage to housing, schools, shops, infrastructure, and streets has meant disruption to their lives, children’s schooling, employment, and community functioning. Ongoing abandonment of homes by many has meant a growing sense of unease and loss of security, exacerbated by arson, burglaries, increased drinking, a stalled local and national economy, and general confusion about the city’s future. Māori cultural resilience has enabled a considerable network of people, institutions, and resources being available to Māori , most noticeably through marae and their integral roles of housing, as a coordinating hub, and their arguing for the wider affected communities of Christchurch. Relevant disaster responses need to be discussed within whānau, kōhanga, kura, businesses, communities, and wider neighbourhoods. Comprehensive disaster management plans need to be drafted for all iwi in collaboration with central government, regional, and city or town councils. Overall, Māori are remarkably philosophical about the effects of the disaster, with many proudly relishing their roles in what is clearly a historic event of great significance to the city and country. Most believe that ‘being Māori’ has helped cope with the disaster, although for some this draws on a collective history of poverty and marginalisation, features that contribute to the vulnerability of Māori to such events. While the recovery and rebuild phases offer considerable options for Māori and iwi, with Ngāi Tahu set to play an important stakeholder in infrastructural, residential, and commercial developments, some risk and considerable unknowns are evident. Considerable numbers of Māori may migrate into the Canterbury region for employment in the rebuild, and trades training strategies have already been established. With many iwi now increasingly investing in property, the risks from significant earthquakes are now more transparent, not least to insurers and the reinsurance sector. Iwi authorities need to be appraised of insurance issues and ensure sufficient coverage exists and investments and developments are undertaken with a clear understanding of the risks from natural hazards and exposure to future disasters.
The Eastern Humps and Leader faults, situated in the Mount Stewart Range in North Canterbury, are two of the ≥17 faults which ruptured during the 2016 MW7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake. The earthquake produced complex, intersecting ground ruptures of these faults and the co-seismic uplift of the Mount Stewart Range. This thesis aims to determine how these two faults accommodated deformation during the 2016 earthquake and how they interact with each other and with pre-existing geological structures. In addition, it aims to establish the most likely subsurface geometry of the fault complex across the Mount Stewart Range, and to investigate the paleoseismic history of the Leader Fault. The Eastern Humps Fault strikes ~240° and dips 80° to 60° to the northwest and accommodated right- lateral – reverse-slip, with up to 4 m horizontal and 2 m vertical displacement in the 2016 earthquake. The strike of the Leader Fault varies from ~155 to ~300°, and dips ~30 to ~80° to the west/northwest, and mainly accommodated left-lateral – reverse-slip of up to 3.5 m horizontal and 3.5 m vertical slip in the 2016 earthquake. On both the Eastern Humps and Leader faults the slip is variable along strike, with areas of low total displacement and areas where horizontal and vertical displacement are negatively correlated. Fault traces with low total displacement reflect the presence of off-fault (distributed) displacement which is not being captured with field measurements. The negative correlation of horizontal and vertical displacement likely indicates a degree of slip partitioning during the 2016 earthquake on both the Eastern Humps and Leader faults. The Eastern Humps and Leader faults have a complex, interdependent relationship with the local bedrock geology. The Humps Fault appears to be a primary driver of ongoing folding and deformation of the local Mendip Syncline and folding of the Mount Stewart Range, which probably began prior to, or synchronous with, initial rupture of The Humps Fault. The Leader Fault appears to use existing lithological weaknesses in the Cretaceous-Cenozoic bedrock stratigraphy to rupture to the surface. This largely accounts for the strong variability on the strike and dip of the Leader Fault, as the geometry of the surface ruptures tend to reflect the strike and dip of the geological strata which it is rupturing through. The Leader Fault may also accommodate some degree of flexural slip in the Cenozoic cover sequence of the Mendip Syncline, contributing to the ongoing growth of the fold. The similarity between topography and uplift profiles from the 2016 earthquake suggest that growth of the Mount Stewart Range has been primarily driven by multiple (>500) discrete earthquakes that rupture The Humps and Leader faults. The spatial distribution of surface displacements across the Mount Stewart Range is more symmetrical than would be expected if uplift is driven primarily by The Humps and Leader faults alone. Elastic dislocation forward models were used to model potential sub-surface geometries and the resulting patterns of deformation compared to photogrammetry-derived surface displacements. Results show a slight preference for models with a steeply southeast-dipping blind fault, coincident with a zone of seismicity at depth, as a ‘backthrust’ to The Humps and Leader faults. This inferred Mount Stewart Fault accommodated contractional strain during the 2016 earthquake and contributes to the ongoing uplift of the Mount Stewart Range with a component of folding. Right-lateral and reverse shear stress change on the Hope Fault was also modelled using Coulomb 3.3 software to examine whether slip on The Humps and Leader faults could transfer enough stress onto the Hope Fault to trigger through-going rupture. Results indicate that during the 2016 earthquake right-lateral shear and reverse stress only increased on the Hope Fault in small areas to the west of the Leader Fault, and similar ruptures would be unlikely to trigger eastward propagating rupture unless the Hope Fault was close to failure prior to the earthquake. Paleoseismic trenches were excavated on the Leader Fault at four locations from 2018 to 2020, revealing near surface (< 4m depth) contractional deformation of Holocene stratigraphy. Three of the trench locations uncovered clear evidence for rupture of the Leader Fault prior to 2016, with fault displacement of near surface stratigraphy being greater than displacement recorded during the 2016 earthquake. Radiocarbon dating of in-situ organic material from two trenches indicate a date of the penultimate earthquake on the Leader Fault within the past 1000 years. This date is consistent with The Humps and Leader faults having ruptured simultaneously in the past, and with multi-fault ruptures involving The Humps, Leader, Hundalee and Stone Jug faults having occurred prior to the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake. Overall, the results contribute to an improved understanding of the Kaikōura earthquake and highlight the importance of detailed structural and paleoseismic investigations in determining controls on earthquake ‘complexity’.
Coastal margins are exposed to rising sea levels that present challenging circumstances for natural resource management. This study investigates a rare example of tectonic displacement caused by earthquakes that generated rapid sea-level change in a tidal lagoon system typical of many worldwide. This thesis begins by evaluating the coastal squeeze effects caused by interactions between relative sea-level (RSL) rise and the built environment of Christchurch, New Zealand, and also examples of release from similar effects in areas of uplift where land reclamations were already present. Quantification of area gains and losses demonstrated the importance of natural lagoon expansion into areas of suitable elevation under conditions of RSL rise and showed that they may be necessary to offset coastal squeeze losses experienced elsewhere. Implications of these spatial effects include the need to provide accommodation space for natural ecosystems under RSL rise, yet other land-uses are likely to be present in the areas required. Consequently, the resilience of these environments depends on facilitating transitions between human land-uses either proactively or in response to disaster events. Principles illustrated by co-seismic sea-level change are generally applicable to climate change adaptation due to the similarity of inundation effects. Furthermore, they highlight the potential role of non-climatic factors in determining the overall trajectory of change. Chapter 2 quantifies impacts on riparian wetland ecosystems over an eight year period post- quake. Coastal wetlands were overwhelmed by RSL rise and recovery trajectories were surprisingly slow. Four risk factors were identified from the observed changes: 1) the encroachment of anthropogenic land-uses, 2) connectivity losses between areas of suitable elevation, 3) the disproportionate effect of larger wetland vulnerabilities, and 4) the need to protect new areas to address the future movement of ecosystems. Chapter 3 evaluates the unique context of shoreline management on a barrier sandspit under sea-level rise. A linked scenario approach was used to evaluate changes on the open coast and estuarine shorelines simultaneously and consider combined effects. The results show dune loss from a third of the study area using a sea-level rise scenario of 1 m over 100 years and with continuation of current land-uses. Increased exposure to natural hazards and accompanying demand for seawalls is a likely consequence unless natural alternatives can be progressed. In contrast, an example of managed retreat following earthquake-induced subsidence of the backshore presents a new opportunity to restart saltmarsh accretion processes seaward of coastal defences with the potential to reverse decades of degradation and build sea-level rise resilience. Considering both shorelines simultaneously highlights the existence of pinch-points from opposing forces that result in small land volumes above the tidal range. Societal adaptation is delicately poised between the paradigms of resisting or accommodating nature and challenged by the long perimeter and confined nature of the sandspit feature. The remaining chapters address the potential for salinity effects caused by tidal prism changes with a focus on the conservation of īnanga (Galaxias maculatus), a culturally important fish that supports New Zealand‘s whitebait fishery. Methodologies were developed to test the hypothesis that RSL changes would drive a shift in the distribution of spawning sites with implications for their management. Chapter 4 describes a new practical methodology for quantifying the total productivity and spatiotemporal variability of spawning sites at catchment scale. Chapter 5 describes the novel use of artificial habitats as a detection tools to help overcome field survey limitations in degraded environments where egg mortality can be high. The results showed that RSL changes resulted in major shifts in spawning locations and these were associated with new patterns of vulnerability due to the continuation of pre-disturbance land-uses. Unexpected findings includes an improved understanding of the spatial relationship between salinity and spawning habitat, and identification of an invasive plant species as important spawning habitat, both with practical management implications. To conclude, the design of legal protection mechanisms was evaluated in relation to the observed habitat shifts and with a focus on two new planning initiatives that identified relatively large protected areas (PAs) in the lower river corridors. Although the larger PAs were better able to accommodate the observed habitat shifts inefficiencies were also apparent due to spatial disparities between PA boundaries and the values requiring protection. To reduce unnecessary trade-offs with other land-uses, PAs of sufficient size to cover the observable spatiotemporal variability and coupled with adaptive capacity to address future change may offer a high effectiveness from a network of smaller PAs. The latter may be informed by both monitoring and modelling of future shifts and these are expected to include upstream habitat migration driven by the identified salinity relationships and eustatic sea-level rise. The thesis concludes with a summary of the knowledge gained from this research that can assist the development of a new paradigm of environmental sustainability incorporating conservation and climate change adaptation. Several promising directions for future research identified within this project are also discussed.
