Framing Disaster Research as “Wicked” Design Problems

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

Though generally considered “natural” disasters, cyclones and earthquakes are increasingly being associated with human activities, incubated through urban settlement patterns and the long-term redistribution of natural resources. As society is becoming more urbanized, the risk of human exposure to disasters is also rising. Architecture often reflects the state of society’s health: architectural damage is the first visible sign of emergency, and reconstruction is the final response in the process of recovery. An empirical assessment of architectural projects in post-disaster situations can lead to a deeper understanding of urban societies as they try to rebuild. This thesis offers an alternative perspective on urban disasters by looking at the actions and attitudes of disaster professionals through the lens of architecture, situated in recent events: the 2010 Christchurch earthquake, the 2010 Haiti earthquake, and the 2005 Hurricane Katrina. An empirical, multi-hazard, cross-sectional case study methodology was used, employing grounded theory method to build theory, and a critical constructivist strategy to inform the analysis. By taking an interdisciplinary approach to understanding disasters, this thesis positions architecture as a conduit between two divergent approaches to disaster research: the hazards approach, which studies the disaster cycles from a scientific perspective; and the sociological approach, which studies the socially constructed vulnerabilities that result from disasters, and the elements of social change that accompany such events. Few studies to date have attempted to integrate the multi-disciplinary perspectives that can advance our understanding of societal problems in urban disasters. To bridge this gap, this thesis develops what will be referred to as the “Rittelian framework”—based on the work of UC Berkeley’s architecture professor Horst Rittel (1930-1990). The Rittelian framework uses the language of design to transcend the multiple fields of human endeavor to address the “design problems” in disaster research. The processes by which societal problems are addressed following an urban disaster involve input by professionals from multiple fields—including economics, sociology, medicine, and engineering—but the contribution from architecture has been minimal to date. The main impetus for my doctoral thesis has been the assertion that most of the decisions related to reconstruction are made in the early emergency recovery stages where architects are not involved, but architects’ early contribution is vital to the long-term reconstruction of cities. This precipitated in the critical question: “How does the Rittelian framework contribute to the critical design decisions in modern urban disasters?” Comparative research was undertaken in three case studies of recent disasters in New Orleans (2005), Haiti (2010) and Christchurch (2010), by interviewing 51 individuals who were selected on the basis of employing the Rittelian framework in their humanitarian practice. Contextualizing natural disaster research within the robust methodological framework of architecture and the analytical processes of sociology is the basis for evaluating the research proposition that architectural problem solving is of value in addressing the ‘Wicked Problems’ of disasters. This thesis has found that (1) the nuances of the way disaster agents interpret the notion of “building back better” can influence the extent to which architectural professionals contribute in urban disaster recovery, (2) architectural design can be used to facilitate but also impede critical design decisions, and (3) framing disaster research in terms of design decisions can lead to innovation where least expected. This empirical research demonstrates how the Rittelian framework can inform a wider discussion about post-disaster human settlements, and improve our resilience through disaster research.

Ground motion selection for seismic response analysis

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This dissertation addresses several fundamental and applied aspects of ground motion selection for seismic response analyses. In particular, the following topics are addressed: the theory and application of ground motion selection for scenario earthquake ruptures; the consideration of causal parameter bounds in ground motion selection; ground motion selection in the near-fault region where directivity effect is significant; and methodologies for epistemic uncertainty consideration and propagation in the context of ground motion selection and seismic performance assessment. The paragraphs below outline each contribution in more detail. A scenario-based ground motion selection method is presented which considers the joint distribution of multiple intensity measure (IM) types based on the generalised conditional intensity measure (GCIM) methodology (Bradley, 2010b, 2012c). The ground motion selection algorithm is based on generating realisations of the considered IM distributions for a specific rupture scenario and then finding the prospective ground motions which best fit the realisations using an optimal amplitude scaling factor. In addition, using different rupture scenarios and site conditions, two important aspects of the GCIM methodology are scrutinised: (i) different weight vectors for the various IMs considered; and (ii) quantifying the importance of replicate selections for ensembles with different numbers of desired ground motions. As an application of the developed scenario-based ground motion selection method, ground motion ensembles are selected to represent several major earthquake scenarios in New Zealand that pose a significant seismic hazard, namely, Alpine, Hope and Porters Pass ruptures for Christchurch city; and Wellington, Ohariu, and Wairarapa ruptures for Wellington city. A rigorous basis is developed, and sensitivity analyses performed, for the consideration of bounds on causal parameters (e.g., magnitude, source-to-site distance, and site condition) for ground motion selection. The effect of causal parameter bound selection on both the number of available prospective ground motions from an initial empirical as-recorded database, and the statistical properties of IMs of selected ground motions are examined. It is also demonstrated that using causal parameter bounds is not a reliable approach to implicitly account for ground motion duration and cumulative effects when selection is based on only spectral acceleration (SA) ordinates. Specific causal parameter bounding criteria are recommended for general use as a ‘default’ bounding criterion with possible adjustments from the analyst based on problem-specific preferences. An approach is presented to consider the forward directivity effects in seismic hazard analysis, which does not separate the hazard calculations for pulse-like and non-pulse-like ground motions. Also, the ability of ground motion selection methods to appropriately select records containing forward directivity pulse motions in the near-fault region is examined. Particular attention is given to ground motion selection which is explicitly based on ground motion IMs, including SA, duration, and cumulative measures; rather than a focus on implicit parameters (i.e., distance, and pulse or non-pulse classifications) that are conventionally used to heuristically distinguish between the near-fault and far-field records. No ad hoc criteria, in terms of the number of directivity ground motions and their pulse periods, are enforced for selecting pulse-like records. Example applications are presented with different rupture characteristics, source-to-site geometry, and site conditions. It is advocated that the selection of ground motions in the near-fault region based on IM properties alone is preferred to that in which the proportion of pulse-like motions and their pulse periods are specified a priori as strict criteria for ground motion selection. Three methods are presented to propagate the effect of seismic hazard and ground motion selection epistemic uncertainties to seismic performance metrics. These methods differ in their level of rigor considered to propagate the epistemic uncertainty in the conditional distribution of IMs utilised in ground motion selection, selected ground motion ensembles, and the number of nonlinear response history analyses performed to obtain the distribution of engineering demand parameters. These methods are compared for an example site where it is observed that, for seismic demand levels below the collapse limit, epistemic uncertainty in ground motion selection is a smaller uncertainty contributor relative to the uncertainty in the seismic hazard itself. In contrast, uncertainty in ground motion selection process increases the uncertainty in the seismic demand hazard for near-collapse demand levels.

Ground motion simulations validation via response of complex structures.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This dissertation addresses a diverse range of applied aspects in ground motion simulation validation via the response of complex structures. In particular, the following topics are addressed: (i) the investigation of similarity between recorded and simulated ground motions using code-based 3D irregular structural response analysis, (ii) the development of a framework for ground motion simulations validation to identify the cause of differences between paired observed and simulated dataset, and (iii) the illustration of the process of using simulations for seismic performance-based assessment. The application of simulated ground motions is evaluated for utilisation in engineering practice by considering responses of 3D irregular structures. Validation is performed in a code-based context when the NZS1170.5 (NZS1170.5:2004, 2004) provisions are followed for response history analysis. Two real buildings designed by engineers and physically constructed in Christchurch before the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence are considered. The responses are compared when the buildings are subjected to 40 scaled recorded and their subsequent simulated ground motions selected from 22 February 2011 Christchurch. The similarity of recorded and simulated responses is examined using statistical methods such as bootstrapping and hypothesis testing to determine whether the differences are statistically significant. The findings demonstrate the applicability of simulated ground motion when the code-based approach is followed in response history analysis. A conceptual framework is developed to link the differences between the structural response subjected to simulated and recorded ground motions to the differences in their corresponding intensity measures. This framework allows the variability to be partitioned into the proportion that can be “explained” by the differences in ground motion intensity measures and the remaining “unexplained” variability that can be attributed to different complexities such as dynamic phasing of multi-mode response, nonlinearity, and torsion. The application of this framework is examined through a hierarchy of structures reflecting a range of complexity from single-degree-of-freedom to 3D multi-degree-of-freedom systems with different materials, dynamic properties, and structural systems. The study results suggest the areas that ground motion simulation should focus on to improve simulations by prioritising the ground motion intensity measures that most clearly account for the discrepancies in simple to complex structural responses. Three approaches are presented to consider recorded or simulated ground motions within the seismic performance-based assessment framework. Considering the applications of ground motions in hazard and response history analyses, different pathways in utilising ground motions in both areas are explored. Recorded ground motions are drawn from a global database (i.e., NGA-West2 Ancheta et al., 2014). The NZ CyberShake dataset is used to obtain simulations. Advanced ground motion selection techniques (i.e., generalized conditional intensity measure, GCIM) are used for ground motion selection at a few intensity levels. The comparison is performed by investigating the response of an example structure (i.e., 12-storey reinforced concrete special moment frame) located in South Island, NZ. Results are compared and contrasted in terms of hazard, groundmotion selection, structural responses, demand hazard, and collapse risk, then, the probable reasons for differences are discussed. The findings from this study highlight the present opportunities and shortcomings in using simulations in risk assessment. i

Experimental study on the seismic performance of low damage systems for no…

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Field surveys and experimental studies have shown that light steel or timber framed plasterboard partition walls are particularly vulnerable to earthquake damage prompting the overarching objective of this research, which is to further the development of low damage seismic systems for non-structural partition walls in order to facilitate their adoption by industry to assist with reducing the losses associated with the maintenance and repair cost of buildings across their design life. In particular, this study focused on the behaviour of steel-framed partition walls systems with novel detailing that aim to be “low-damage” designed according to common practice for walls used in commercial and institutional buildings in New Zealand. This objective was investigated by (1) investigating the performance of a flexible track system proposed by researchers and industry by experimental testing of full-scale specimens; (2) investigating the performance of the seismic gap partition wall systems proposed in a number of studies, further developed in this study with input from industry, by experimental testing of full-scale specimens; and (3) investigating the potential implications of using these systems compared with traditionally detailed partition wall systems within multi-storey buildings using the Performance Based Earthquake Engineering loss assessment methodology. Three full-scale testing frames were designed in order to replicate, under controlled laboratory conditions, the effects of seismic shaking on partition walls within multi-storey buildings by the application of quasi-static uni-directional cyclic loading imposing an inter-storey drift. The typical configuration for test specimens was selected to be a unique “y-shape”, including one angled return wall, with typical dimensions of approximately 2400 mm along the main wall and 600 mm along (approximately) the returns walls with a height of 2405 mm from floor to ceiling. The specimens were aligned within test frames at an oblique angle to the direction of loading in order to investigate bi- directional effects. Three wall specimens with flexible track detailing, two identical plane specimens and the third including a doorway, were tested. The detailing involved removing top track anchors within the proximity of wall intersections, thus allowing the tracks to ‘bow’ out at these locations. Although the top track anchors were specified to be removed the proximity of wall intersections, a construction error was made whereby a single top track slab to concrete anchor was left in at the three-way wall junction. Despite this error, the experimental testing was deemed worthwhile since such errors will also occur in practice and because the behaviour of the wall can be examined with this fixing in mind. The specimens also included an acoustic/fire sealant at the top lining to floor boundary. In addition to providing drift capacities, the force-displacement behaviour is also reported, the dissipated energy was computed, and the parameters of the Wayne-Stewart hysteretic model were fitted to the results. The specimen with the door opening behaved significantly different to the plane specimens: damage to the doorway specimen began as cracking of the wallboard propagating from the corners of the doorway following which the L- and Y- shaped junctions behaved independently, whereas damage to the plane specimens began as cracking of the wallboard at the top of the L-junction and wall system deformed as a single unit. The results suggest that bi-directional behaviour is important even if its impact cannot be directly quantified by the experiments conducted. Damage to sealant implies that the bond between plasterboard and sealant is important for its seismic performance. Careful quality control is advised as defects in the bond may significantly impact its ability to withstand seismic movement. Two specimens with seismic gap detailing were tested: a steel stud specimen and a timber stud specimen. Observed drift capacities were significantly greater than traditional plasterboard partition systems. Equations were used to predict the drift at which damage state 1 (DS1) and damage state 2 (DS2) would initiate. The equation used to estimate the drift at the onset of DS1 accurately predicted the onset of plaster cracking but overestimated the drift at which the gap filling material was damaged. The equation used to predict the onset of DS2 provided a lower bound for both specimens and also when used to predict results of previous experimental tests on seismic gap systems. The gap-filling material reduced the drift at the onset of DS1, however, it had a beneficial effect on the re-centring behaviour of the linings. Out-of-plane displacements and return wall configuration did not appear to significantly impact the onset of plaster cracking in the specimens. A loss assessment according to the PBEE methodology was conducted on four steel MRF case study buildings: (1) a 4-storey building designed for the Christchurch region, (2) a 4-storey building designed for the Wellington region, (3) a 12-storey building designed for the Christchurch region, and (4) a 12- storey building designed for the Wellington region. The fragility parameters for a traditional partition system, the flexible track partition system, and the seismic gap steel stud and timber stud partition systems were included within the loss assessment. The order (lowest to highest) of each system in terms of the expected annual losses of each building when incorporating the system was, (1) the seismic gap timber stud system, (2) the seismic gap steel stud system, (3) the traditional/baseline system, and (4) the flexible track system. For the seismic gap timber stud system, which incurred the greatest reduction in expected annual losses for each case study building, the reduction in expected annual losses in comparison to the losses found when using the traditional system ranged from a 5% to a 30% reduction. This reinforces the fact that while there is a benefit to the using low damage partition systems in each building the extent of reduction in expected annual losses is significantly dependent on the particular building design and its location. The flexible track specimens had larger repair costs at small hazard levels compared to the traditional system but smaller repair costs at larger hazard levels. However, the resulting expected annual losses for the flexible track system was higher than the traditional system which reinforces findings from past studies which observed that the greatest contribution to expected annual losses arises from low to moderate intensity shaking seismic events (low hazard levels).