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Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

This dissertation contains three essays on the impact of unexpected adverse events on student outcomes. All three attempt to identify causal inference using plausibly exogenous shocks and econometric tools, applied to rich administrative data.  In Chapter 2, I present evidence of the causal effects of the 2011 Christchurch earthquake on tertiary enrolment and completion. Using the shock of the 2011 earthquake on high school students in the Canterbury region, I estimate the effect of the earthquake on a range of outcomes including tertiary enrolment, degree completion and wages. I find the earthquake causes a substantial increase in tertiary enrolment, particularly for low ability high school leavers from damaged schools. However, I find no evidence that low ability students induced by the earthquake complete a degree on time.  In Chapter 3, I identify the impact of repeat disaster exposure on university performance, by comparing outcomes for students who experience their first earthquake while in university, to outcomes for students with prior earthquake exposure. Using a triple-differences estimation strategy with individual-by-year fixed effects, I identify a precise null effect, suggesting that previous experience of earthquakes is not predictive of response to an additional shock two years later.  The final chapter investigates the impact of injuries sustained in university on academic performance and wages, using administrative data including no-fault insurance claims, emergency department attendance and hospital admissions, linked with tertiary enrolment. I find injuries, including minor injuries, have a negative effect on re-enrolment, degree completion and grades in university.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Strong aftershocks felt in Canterbury, Quake firms to seek government wage subsidy, More services, access to buildings being restored in Christchurch, Minister for Earthquake Recovery discusses plans, Heavy rain causes flooding and road closures in Lower North Island, Building codes minimised quake's injuries and damage, Glass supply freezes as Christchurch companies clean up.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

Photograph captioned by Fairfax, "Christchurch Earthquake. A massive 7.4 magnitude earthquake has hit Christchurch and the wider South Island causing widespread damage, two serious injuries and power cuts to most of the city. The Kobussen family all pitched in to clear their grandmother's Kaiapoi driveway. (L-R) Josh (11), Henny (father) and Luke (14)".

Images, UC QuakeStudies

Photograph captioned by Fairfax, "Christchurch Earthquake. A massive 7.4 magnitude earthquake has hit Christchurch and the wider South Island, causing widespread damage, two serious injuries and power cuts to most of the city. The Kobussen family all pitched in to clear their grandmother's Kaiapoi driveway. (L-R) Josh (11), Henny (father) and Luke (14)".