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Audio, Radio New Zealand

After the magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck Canterbury on 4 September 2010, most media reports claimed that no lives had been lost. But In fact, this first earthquake killed at least 3000 chickens, eight cows, one dog, a lemur and 150 aquarium fish. University of Canterbury associate professor Annie Potts, along with co-author Donelle Gadenne, wrote Animals in Emergencies: Learning from the Christchurch Earthquakes, revealing what happened to the animals during and after the series of quakes. Annie Potts will give a public lecture, 'Animals and natural disasters: Learning from recent earthquakes', on Thursday 16 March, 7pm at UC Ilam campus, Christchurch. Register to attend free at: www.canterbury.ac.nz/ucconnect

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This report presents the simplified seismic assessment of a case study reinforced concrete (RC) building following the newly developed and refined NZSEE/MBIE guidelines on seismic assessment (NZSEE/MBIE, semi-final draft 26 October 2016). After an overview of the step-by-step ‘diagnostic’ process, including an holistic and qualitative description of the expected vulnerabilities and of the assessment strategy/methodology, focus is given, whilst not limited, to the implementation of a Detailed Seismic Assessment (DSA) (NZSEE/MBIE, 2016c). The DSA is intended to provide a more reliable and consistent outcome than what can be provided by an initial seismic assessment (ISA). In fact, while the Initial Seismic Assessment (ISA), of which the Initial Evaluation Procedure is only a part of, is the more natural and still recommended first step in the overall assessment process, it is mostly intended to be a coarse evaluation involving as few resources as reasonably possible. It is thus expected that an ISA will be followed by a Detailed Seismic Assessment (DSA) not only where the threshold of 33%NBS is not achieved but also where important decisions are intended that are reliant on the seismic status of the building. The use of %NBS (% New Building Standard) as a capacity/demand ratio to describe the result of the seismic assessment at all levels of assessment procedure (ISA through to DSA) is deliberate by the NZSEE/MBIE guidelines (Part A) (NZSEE/MBIE 2016a). The rating for the building needs only be based on the lowest level of assessment that is warranted for the particular circumstances. Discussion on how the %NBS rating is to be determined can be found in Section A3.3 (NZSEE/MBIE 2016a), and, more specifically, in Part B for the ISA (NZSEE/MBIE 2016b) and Part C for the DSA (NZSEE/MBIE 2016c). As per other international approaches, the DSA can be based on several analysis procedures to assess the structural behaviour (linear, nonlinear, static or dynamic, force or displacement-based). The significantly revamped NZSEE 2016 Seismic Assessment Guidelines strongly recommend the use of an analytical (basically ‘by hand’) method, referred to the Simple Lateral Mechanism Analysis (SLaMA) as a first phase of any other numerically-based analysis method. Significant effort has thus been dedicated to provide within the NZSEE 2016 guidelines (NZSEE/MBIE 2016c) a step-by-step description of the procedure, either in general terms (Chapter 2) or with specific reference to Reinforced Concrete Buildings (Chapter 5). More specifically, extract from the guidelines, NZSEE “recommend using the Simple Lateral Mechanism Analysis (SLaMA) procedure as a first step in any assessment. While SLaMA is essentially an analysis technique, it enables assessors to investigate (and present in a simple form) the potential contribution and interaction of a number of structural elements and their likely effect on the building’s global capacity. In some cases, the results of a SLaMA will only be indicative. However, it is expected that its use should help assessors achieve a more reliable outcome than if they only carried out a detailed analysis, especially if that analysis is limited to the elastic range For complex structural systems, a 3D dynamic analysis may be necessary to supplement the simplified nonlinear Simple Lateral Mechanism Analysis (SLaMA).” This report presents the development of a full design example for the the implementation of the SLaMA method on a case study buildings and a validation/comparison with a non-linear static (pushover) analysis. The step-by-step-procedure, summarized in Figure 1, will be herein demonstrated from a component level (beams, columns, wall elements) to a subassembly level (hierarchy of strength in a beam-column joint) and to a system level (frame, C-Wall) assuming initially a 2D behaviour of the key structural system, and then incorporating a by-hand 3D behaviour (torsional effects).

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The focus of the study presented herein is an assessment of the relative efficacy of recent Cone Penetration Test (CPT) and small strain shear wave velocity (Vs) based variants of the simplified procedure. Towards this end Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed on the CPT- and Vs-based procedures using the field case history databases from which the respective procedures were developed. The ROC analyses show that Factors of Safety (FS) against liquefaction computed using the most recent Vs-based simplified procedure is better able to separate the “liquefaction” from the “no liquefaction” case histories in the Vs liquefaction database than the CPT-based procedure is able to separate the “liquefaction” from the “no liquefaction” case histories in the CPT liquefaction database. However, this finding somewhat contradicts the assessed predictive capabilities of the CPT- and Vs-based procedures as quantified using select, high quality liquefaction case histories from the 20102011 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence (CES), wherein the CPT-based procedure was found to yield more accurate predictions. The dichotomy of these findings may result from the fact that different liquefaction field case history databases were used in the respective ROC analyses for Vs and CPT, while the same case histories were used to evaluate both the CPT- and Vs-based procedures.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

A 3D high-resolution model of the geologic structure and associated seismic velocities in the Canterbury, New Zealand region is developed utilising data from depthconverted seismic reflection lines, petroleum and water well logs, cone penetration tests, and implicitly guided by existing contour maps and geologic cross sections in data sparse subregions. The model, developed using geostatistical Kriging, explicitly represents the significant and regionally recognisable geologic surfaces that mark the boundaries between geologic units with distinct lithology and age. The model is examined in the form of both geologic surface elevation contour maps as well as vertical cross sections of shear wave velocity, with the most prominent features being the Banks Peninsula Miocene-Pliocene volcanic edifice, and the Pegasus and Rakaia late Mesozoic-Neogene sedimentary basins. The adequacy of the modelled geologic surfaces is assessed through a residual analysis of point constraints used in the Kriging and qualitative comparisons with previous geologic models of subsets of the region. Seismic velocities for the lithological units between the geologic surfaces have also been derived, thus providing the necessary information for a Canterbury velocity model (CantVM) for use in physics-based seismic wave propagation. The developed model also has application for the determination of depths to specified shear wave velocities for use in empirical ground motion modelling, which is explicitly discussed via an example.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This article presents a quantitative case study on the site amplification effect observed at Heathcote Valley, New Zealand, during the 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence for 10 events that produced notable ground acceleration amplitudes up to 1.4g and 2.2g in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. We performed finite element analyses of the dynamic response of the valley, accounting for the realistic basin geometry and the soil non-linear response. The site-specific simulations performed significantly better than both empirical ground motion models and physics based regional-scale ground motion simulations (which empirically accounts for the site effects), reducing the spectral acceleration prediction bias by a factor of two in short vibration periods. However, our validation exercise demonstrated that it was necessary to quantify the level of uncertainty in the estimated bedrock motion using multiple recorded events, to understand how much the simplistic model can over- or under-estimate the ground motion intensities. Inferences from the analyses suggest that the Rayleigh waves generated near the basin edge contributed significantly to the observed high frequency (f>3Hz) amplification, in addition to the amplification caused by the strong soil-rock impedance contrast at the site fundamental frequency. Models with and without considering soil non-linear response illustrate, as expected, that the linear elastic assumption severely overestimates ground motions in high frequencies for strong earthquakes, especially when the contribution of basin edge-generated Rayleigh waves becomes significant. Our analyses also demonstrate that the effect of pressure-dependent soil velocities on the high frequency ground motions is as significant as the amplification caused by the basin edge-generated Rayleigh waves.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The 2010–2011 Canterbury earthquakes and their aftermath have been described by the Human Rights Commission as one of New Zealand's greatest contemporary human rights challenges. This article documents the shortcomings in the realisation of the right to housing in post-quake Canterbury for homeowners, tenants and the homeless. The article then considers what these shortcomings tell us about New Zealand's overall human rights framework, suggesting that the ongoing and seemingly intractable nature of these issues and the apparent inability to resolve them indicate an underlying fragility implicit in New Zealand's framework for dealing with the consequences of a large-scale natural disaster. The article concludes that there is a need for a comprehensive human rights-based approach to disaster preparedness, response and recovery in New Zealand.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Voluntary turnover has been the subject of scholarly inquiry for more than 100 years and much is understood about the drivers of turnover, and the decision-making processes involved. To date most models of voluntary turnover have assumed a rational and sequential decision process, initiated primarily by dissatisfaction with the job and the perceived availability of alternatives. Operating within a strong predictive research agenda, countless studies have sought to validate, extend and refine these traditional models through the addition of distal antecedents, mediators, moderators, and proximal antecedents of turnover. The net result of this research is a large body of empirical support for a somewhat modest relationship between job dissatisfaction, perceived alternatives, turnover intentions, job search behaviour and actual turnover. Far less scholarly attention has been directed at understanding shock-induced turnover that is not necessarily derived from dissatisfaction. Moreover, almost no consideration has been given to understanding how a significant and commonly experienced extra-organisational shock, such as natural disaster, might impact turnover decision making. Additionally, the dynamic and cumulative impacts of multiple shocks on turnover decision making have to date not been examined by turnover researchers. In addressing these gaps this thesis presents a leaver-centric theory of employee turnover decision making that is grounded in the post-disaster context. Data for the study were collected from in-depth interviews with 31 leavers in four large organisations in Christchurch, New Zealand; an area that experienced a major natural disaster in the form of the Canterbury earthquake sequence. This context provided a unique setting in which to study turnover as the primary shock was followed by a series of smaller shocks, resulting in a period of sustained disruption to the pre-shock status quo. Grounded theory methods are used to develop a typology of leaving which describes four distinct patterns of turnover decision making that follow a significant extra-organisational shock. The proposed typology not only addresses the heterogeneous and complex nature of turnover decision making, but also provides a more nuanced explanation of the turnover process explicating how the choice of decision path followed is influenced by four contextual factors which emerged from the data: (1) pre-shock motivational state; (2) decision difficulty; (3) experienced shock magnitude; and (4) the availability of resources. The research findings address several shortcomings in the extant literature on employee turnover, and offer practical recommendations for managers seeking to retain employees in a post-disaster setting.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The Canterbury region of New Zealand experienced a sequence of strong earthquakes during 2010-2011. Responses included government acquisition of many thousands of residential properties in the city of Christchurch in areas with severe earthquake effects. A large and contiguous tract of this ‘red zoned’ land lies in close proximity to the Ōtākaro / Avon River and is known as the Avon-Ōtākaro Red Zone (AORZ). The focus of this study was to provide an overview of the floodplain characteristics of the AORZ and review of international experience in ecological restoration of similar river margin and floodplain ecosystems to extract restoration principles and associated learnings. Compared to pre-earthquake ground levels, the dominant trend in the AORZ is subsidence, together with lateral movement especially in the vicinity of waterway. An important consequence of land subsidence in the lower Ōtākaro / Avon River is greater exposure to flooding and the effects of sea level rise. Scenario modelling for sea level rise indicates that much of the AORZ is exposed to inundation within a 100 year planning horizon based on a 1 m sea level rise. As with decisions on built infrastructure, investments in nature-based ‘green infrastructure’ also require a sound business case including attention to risks posed by climate change. Future-proofing of the expected benefits of ecological restoration must therefore be secured by design. Understanding and managing the hydrology and floodplain dynamics are vital to the future of the AORZ. However, these characteristics are shared by other floodplain and river restoration projects worldwide. Identifying successful approaches provides a useful a source of useful information for floodplain planning in the AORZ. This report presents results from a comparative case study of three international examples to identify relevant principles for large-scale floodplain management at coastal lowland sites.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Following the Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010-11, a large and contiguous tract of vacated ‘red zoned’ land lies alongside the lower Ōtākaro / Avon River and is known as the Avon-Ōtākaro Red Zone (AORZ). This is the second report in the Ecological Regeneration Options (ERO) project that addresses future land uses in the AORZ. The purpose of this report is to present results from an assessment of restoration opportunities conducted in April 2017. The objectives of the assessment were to identify potential benefits of ecological restoration activities across both land and water systems in the AORZ and characterise the key options for their implementation. The focus of this report is not to provide specific advice on the methods for achieving specific restoration endpoints per se. This will vary at different sites and scales with a large number of combinations possible. Rather, the emphasis is on providing an overview of the many restoration and regeneration options in their totality across the AORZ. An additional objective is to support their adequate assessment in the identification of optimum land uses and adaptive management practices for the AORZ. Participatory processes may play a useful role in assessment and stakeholder engagement by providing opportunities for social learning and the co-creation of new knowledge. We used a facilitated local knowledge based approach that generated a large quantity of reliable and site specific data in a short period of time. By inviting participation from a wide knowledge-holder network inclusivity is improved in comparison to small-group expert panel approaches. Similar approaches could be applied to other information gathering and assessment needs in the regeneration planning process. Findings from this study represent the most comprehensive set of concepts available to date to address the potential benefits of ecological regeneration in the AORZ. This is a core topic for planning to avoid missed opportunities and opportunity costs. The results identify a wide range of activities that may be applied to generate benefits for Christchurch and beyond, all involving aspects of a potential new ecology in the AORZ. These may be combined at a range of scales to create scenarios, quantify benefits, and explore the potential for synergies between different land use options. A particular challenge is acquiring the information needed within relatively short time frames. Early attention to gathering baseline data, addressing technical knowledge gaps, and developing conceptual frameworks to account for the many spatio-temporal aspects are all key activities that will assist in delivering the best outcomes. Methodologies by which these many facets can be pulled together in quantitative and comparative assessments are the focus of the final report in the ERO series.