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Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Despite over a century of study, the relationship between lunar cycles and earthquakes remains controversial and difficult to quantitatively investigate. Perhaps as a consequence, major earthquakes around the globe are frequently followed by 'prediction' claims, using lunar cycles, that generate media furore and pressure scientists to provide resolute answers. The 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes in New Zealand were no exception; significant media attention was given to lunarderived earthquake predictions by non-scientists, even though the predictions were merely 'opinions' and were not based on any statistically robust temporal or causal relationships. This thesis provides a framework for studying lunisolar earthquake temporal relationships by developing replicable statistical methodology based on peer reviewed literature. Notable in the methodology is a high accuracy ephemeris, called ECLPSE, designed specifically by the author for use on earthquake catalogs, and a model for performing phase angle analysis. The statistical tests were carried out on two 'declustered' seismic catalogs, one containing the aftershocks from the Mw7.1 earthquake in Canterbury, and the other containing Australian seismicity from the past two decades. Australia is an intraplate setting far removed from active plate boundaries and Canterbury is proximal to a plate boundary, thus allowing for comparison based on tectonic regime and corresponding tectonic loading rate. No strong, conclusive, statistical correlations were found at any level of the earthquake catalogs, looking at large events, onshore events, offshore events, and the fault type of some events. This was concluded using Schuster's test of significance with α=5% and analysis of standard deviations. A few weak correlations, with p-5-10% of rejecting the null hypothesis, and anomalous standard deviations were found, but these are difficult to interpret. The results invalidate the statistical robustness of 'earthquake predictions' using lunisolar parameters in this instance. An ambitious researcher could improve on the quality of the results and on the range of parameters analyzed. The conclusions of the thesis raise more questions than answers, but the thesis provides an adaptable methodology that can be used to further investigation the problem.

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

A video of Principal Richard Patton announcing to staff and students that Chisnallwood Intermediate is to remain open. Chisnallwood is one of thirteen schools which the Ministry of Education planned to close after the 22 February 2011 earthquake.

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

A video of the opening night of the Heathcote Valley Inn. The inn has been rebuilt, after the 133-year-old original inn was damaged in the 4 September 2010 earthquake. Mayor Bob Parker officially opens the new building.

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

A video of a press conference with Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, in the Christchurch Town Hall. Clinton talks about Canterbury's recovery after the 4 September 2010 earthquake. She also answers questions from members of the public.

Videos, UC QuakeStudies

A video of an interview with Alison Naylor about her flooded house on Francis Avenue. Naylor talks about the lack of communication from the Christchurch City Council. She says that the flooding is worse than the liquefaction from the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

There is a now a rich literature on the connections between digital media, networked computing, and the shaping of urban material cultures. Much less has addressed the post-disaster context, like we face in Christchurch, where it is more a case of re-build rather than re-new. In what follows I suggest that Lev Manovich’s well-known distinction between narrative and database as distinct but related cultural forms is a useful framework for thinking about the Christchurch rebuild, and perhaps urbanism more generally.