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Images, UC QuakeStudies

A photograph of the earthquake damage to a group of shops on Manchester Street. The closest shop has collapsed and the floor of the upper storey is hanging out of the side of the shop. To the left, the outer walls of the top storeys of the shops have collapsed, the bricks spilling onto the street.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

A photograph of an earthquake-damaged house on Marine Parade in North Brighton. The front section of the house has collapsed, the rest buckled. The wall of the gable has also collapsed as well as part of the lower front wall. A red sticker in the window indicates that the building is unsafe to enter. A message has been spray painted on the front window, reading, "Roof tiles, $3 each". Police tape has been used to cordon off the house. Public notices can be seen on the fence, on the roof of the collapsed section and the section behind.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

© 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. Prediction of building collapse due to significant seismic motion is a principle objective of earthquake engineers, particularly after a major seismic event when the structure is damaged and decisions may need to be made rapidly concerning the safe occupation of a building or surrounding areas. Traditional model-based pushover analyses are effective, but only if the structural properties are well understood, which is not the case after an event when that information is most useful. This paper combines hysteresis loop analysis (HLA) structural health monitoring (SHM) and incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) methods to identify and then analyse collapse capacity and the probability of collapse for a specific structure, at any time, a range of earthquake excitations to ensure robustness. This nonlinear dynamic analysis enables constant updating of building performance predictions following a given and subsequent earthquake events, which can result in difficult to identify deterioration of structural components and their resulting capacity, all of which is far more difficult using static pushover analysis. The combined methods and analysis provide near real-time updating of the collapse fragility curves as events progress, thus quantifying the change of collapse probability or seismic induced losses very soon after an earthquake for decision-making. Thus, this combination of methods enables a novel, higher-resolution analysis of risk that was not previously available. The methods are not computationally expensive and there is no requirement for a validated numerical model, thus providing a relatively simpler means of assessing collapse probability immediately post-event when such speed can provide better information for critical decision-making. Finally, the results also show a clear need to extend the area of SHM toward creating improved predictive models for analysis of subsequent events, where the Christchurch series of 2010–2011 had significant post-event aftershocks.

Images, UC QuakeStudies

St John's Presbyterian Church on Winchester Street in Lyttelton. The ground around the church has been strewn with masonry from the church's walls and collapsed tower. The building's front door has been red-stickered and a sign that reads "No entry" is stuck to it. The spire of the collapsed tower has fallen in front of the church, which has been enclosed by a safety fence.