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Images for CANTERBURY EARTHQUAKE; more images...

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

Despite over a century of study, the relationship between lunar cycles and earthquakes remains controversial and difficult to quantitatively investigate. Perhaps as a consequence, major earthquakes around the globe are frequently followed by 'prediction' claims, using lunar cycles, that generate media furore and pressure scientists to provide resolute answers. The 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes in New Zealand were no exception; significant media attention was given to lunarderived earthquake predictions by non-scientists, even though the predictions were merely 'opinions' and were not based on any statistically robust temporal or causal relationships. This thesis provides a framework for studying lunisolar earthquake temporal relationships by developing replicable statistical methodology based on peer reviewed literature. Notable in the methodology is a high accuracy ephemeris, called ECLPSE, designed specifically by the author for use on earthquake catalogs, and a model for performing phase angle analysis. The statistical tests were carried out on two 'declustered' seismic catalogs, one containing the aftershocks from the Mw7.1 earthquake in Canterbury, and the other containing Australian seismicity from the past two decades. Australia is an intraplate setting far removed from active plate boundaries and Canterbury is proximal to a plate boundary, thus allowing for comparison based on tectonic regime and corresponding tectonic loading rate. No strong, conclusive, statistical correlations were found at any level of the earthquake catalogs, looking at large events, onshore events, offshore events, and the fault type of some events. This was concluded using Schuster's test of significance with α=5% and analysis of standard deviations. A few weak correlations, with p-5-10% of rejecting the null hypothesis, and anomalous standard deviations were found, but these are difficult to interpret. The results invalidate the statistical robustness of 'earthquake predictions' using lunisolar parameters in this instance. An ambitious researcher could improve on the quality of the results and on the range of parameters analyzed. The conclusions of the thesis raise more questions than answers, but the thesis provides an adaptable methodology that can be used to further investigation the problem.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Ruamoko, the Earthquake God, stirs in his bed, and with a sudden yawn, wonders if it is time to awake again. Above him Christchurch City trembles. On 15 May 2012, after several months of comparatively small quakes, a 4.5 Richter Scale earthquake was registered only 10 km East of Christchurch. Quake-weary Christchurch citizens feared that another large earthquake was on its way. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Research papers, The University of Auckland Library

The sequence of earthquakes that has affected Christchurch and Canterbury since September 2010 has caused damage to a great number of buildings of all construction types. Following post-event damage surveys performed between April 2011 and June 2011, the damage suffered by unreinforced stone masonry buildings is reported and different types of observed failures are described. A detailed technical description of the most prevalently observed failure mechanisms is provided, with reference to recognised failure modes for unreinforced masonry structures. The observed performance of existing seismic retrofit interventions is also provided, as an understanding of the seismic response of these interventions is of fundamental importance for assessing the vulnerability of similar strengthening techniques when applied to unreinforced stone masonry structures.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

Scientists stand before a model that will predict earthquakes. The model is a large arm attached to wires and switches with a thumb that flicks coins '"Heads" we have big quake at five-o-clock... "tails" we don't'. Context: short term predictions (hours to days) are in general unlikely to be possible, at present. Relates to the Christchurch earthquakes which experts have said could go on for years. Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Images, Canterbury Museum

Replica chimney comprising a chimney pot atop a lightweight brick chimney. The chimney is contextualised by a portion of slate roof, guttering and bricked house exterior below.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

The September 2010 Canterbury and February 2011 Christchurch earthquakes and associated aftershocks have shown that the isolator displacement in Christchurch Women's Hospital (Christchurch City's only base-isolated structure) was significantly less than expected. Occupant accounts of the events have also indicated that the accelerations within the hospital superstructure were larger than would usually be expected within a base-isolated structure and that residual low-level shaking lasts for a longer period of time following the strong-motion of an event than for non-isolated structures.