Road networks are highly exposed to natural hazard events, which can lead to significant economic and social consequences. In New Zealand, events such as the 2011 Christchurch earthquake, the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake, and the Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have demonstrated the severe consequences of road network disruptions. Traditional post event economic assessments often focus solely on clean-up and repair costs, neglecting the broader and more enduring impacts these events can have. Furthermore, business cases for resilience investments usually fail when quantifying the economic benefits of mitigation strategies, due to the underestimation of road disruption consequences. Importantly, not all road link disruptions contribute equally to these consequences, making the identification of critical road links a key step in resilience focused investment prioritization. Furthermore, traditional transportation asset management typically evaluates the life cycle of roads under normal conditions, such as traffic loads and standard environmental factors, while neglecting the influence of natural hazards. However, these events can significantly alter road deterioration and increase maintenance costs, emphasizing the need for integrating risk and resilience into transportation asset management approaches. This thesis presents a methodology to evaluate road criticality by assessing the economic consequences of road disruptions in combination with a hazard model in a prioritization index. Initially, the consequences are quantified through increased travel time, higher vehicle operating costs, and increased gas emissions. Thereafter, a new consequence model is introduced to estimate the increase in maintenance costs on alternative routes that absorb diverted traffic following a disruption. These consequence models are initially applied in a 'full-scan' analysis approach, where each road link is removed in turn to quantify its potential impact and, therefore, its criticality. Subsequently, a hazard model is integrated to develop a road prioritization index that combines the expected impacts of road disruptions, the individual road link criticality, and the probability of occurrence of natural hazard events. This index is designed to help road agencies in prioritizing mitigation strategies. Furthermore, the proposed methodology can also be applied to quantify the indirect economic impacts of natural hazard events. The methodology is demonstrated using New Zealand’s South Island inter-urban network as a case study, incorporating an earthquake-induced landslide model, with Python based simulations, providing road agencies a valuable tool to quantify the economic benefits of resilience investments
The devastating consequences of past events, such as the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tōhoku tsunamis, emphasise the need for continued improvement in resilience measures. Given that 80% of magnitude 8+ earthquakes occur on the Pacific Rim, New Zealand's tsunami risk is significant. This research develops a novel tsunami inundation model. The proposed model applies equations based on hydraulic principles, including energy conservation (friction loss). While it does not fully replicate hydrodynamic models, it maintains a two-dimensional approach and offers significant improvements over currently implemented simplified methods. It retains excellent computational efficiency (seconds to minutes) while achieving a significant increase in accuracy that is comparable to traditional hydrodynamic models, which typically take hours to days. Calibration of the roughness input variables to hydrodynamic modelling at Gisborne and Christchurch, New Zealand, optimised the model to achieve similarity index values of above 84% for inundation extent, while 77% of inundation depths were within ±1 m and over 93% within ±2 m. This research then produces the first nationally consistent tsunami exposure assessment for New Zealand using a physics-based modelling method. Using probabilistic shoreline wave amplitude data, the study generates high-resolution (10 m) inundation maps for seven return periods (50th and 84th percentiles). These maps are integrated with land cover and infrastructure data to quantify exposure and identify the most vulnerable locations. The results highlight exposure not only to the commonly studied cities but also to several provincial areas. The identification of exposure is the foremost step towards practical resilience efforts; however, understanding specific infrastructure impacts ensures that countermeasures and risk reduction practices are implemented. Therefore, a detailed evaluation of the NZTA Bridge Manual is conducted. Comparisons are made between the NZTA methodology and the rapid model developed in this research. The results reveal a significant overestimation of bridge and culvert exposure by NZTA methods. The study further highlights critical exposure locations for bridge and culvert assets. Flow depths calculated at bridge locations are significantly overestimated using the NZTA method compared to results derived from hydrodynamic modelling and the rapid model. This research then conducts component-level modelling of culvert assets, due to their identified vulnerability in the transportation network. At a 1:15 geometrical scale, laboratory experiments evaluated the response of different culvert set-ups to tsunami bores. The findings provide a detailed description into overtopping, flow regimes and pressure distributions and give laboratory experiments as validation studies for future numerical modelling and design improvements. Overall, this research performs a multi-modal tsunami inundation assessment, uniting macro-level exposure modelling with micro-level component responses by integrating modelling, exposure analysis, and experimental validation. The findings support refining current tsunami guidelines, improving infrastructure planning, and enhancing community preparedness. Overall, the study’s multi-model approach strengthens many elements of New Zealand’s ability to mitigate and respond to future tsunami events
Territorial authorities in New Zealand are responding to regulatory and market forces in the wake of the 2011 Christchurch earthquake to assess and retrofit buildings determined to be particularly vulnerable to earthquakes. Pending legislation may shorten the permissible timeframes on such seismic improvement programmes, but Auckland Council’s Property Department is already engaging in a proactive effort to assess its portfolio of approximately 3500 buildings, prioritise these assets for retrofit, and forecast construction costs for improvements. Within the programme structure, the following varied and often competing factors must be accommodated: * The council’s legal, fiscal, and ethical obligations to the people of Auckland per building regulations, health and safety protocols, and economic growth and urban development planning strategies; * The council’s functional priorities for service delivery; * Varied and numerous stakeholders across the largest territorial region in New Zealand in both population and landmass; * Heritage preservation and community and cultural values; and * Auckland’s prominent economic role in New Zealand’s economy which requires Auckland’s continued economic production post-disaster. Identifying those buildings most at risk to an earthquake in such a large and varied portfolio has warranted a rapid field assessment programme supplemented by strategically chosen detailed assessments. Furthermore, Auckland Council will benefit greatly in time and resources by choosing retrofit solutions, techniques, and technologies applicable to a large number of buildings with similar configurations and materials. From a research perspective, the number and variety of buildings within the council’s property portfolio will provide valuable data for risk modellers on building typologies in Auckland, which are expected to be fairly representative of the New Zealand building stock as a whole
Critical infrastructure networks are highly relied on by society such that any disruption to service can have major social and economic implications. Furthermore, these networks are becoming increasingly dependent on each other for normal operation such that an outage or asset failure in one system can easily propagate and cascade across others resulting in widespread disruptions in terms of both magnitude and spatial reach. It is the vulnerability of these networks to disruptions and the corresponding complexities in recovery processes which provide direction to this research. This thesis comprises studies contributing to two areas (i) the modelling of national scale in-terdependent infrastructure systems undergoing major disruptions, and (ii) the tracking and quantification of infrastructure network recovery trajectories following major disruptions. Firstly, methods are presented for identifying nationally significant systemic vulnerabilities and incorporating expert knowledge into the quantification of infrastructure interdependency mod-elling and simulation. With application to the interdependent infrastructures networks across New Zealand, the magnitudes and spatial extents of disruption are investigated. Results high-light the importance in considering interdependencies when assessing disruptive risks and vul-nerabilities in disaster planning applications and prioritising investment decisions for enhancing resilience of national networks. Infrastructure dependencies are further studied in the context of recovery from major disruptions through the analysis of curves measuring network functionality over time. Continued studies into the properties of recovery curves across a database of global natural disasters produce statistical models for predicting the trajectory and expected recovery times. Finally, the use of connectivity based metrics for quantifying infrastructure system functionality during recovery are considered with a case study application to the Christchurch Earthquake (February 22, 2011) wastewater network response
Following the devastation of the Canterbury earthquake sequence a unique opportunity exists to rebuild and restructure the city of Christchurch, ensuring that its infrastructure is constructed better than before and is innovative. By installing an integrated grid of modern sensor technologies into concrete structures during the rebuild of the Christchurch CBD, the aim is to develop a network of self-monitored ‘digital buildings’. A diverse range of data will be recorded, potentially including parameters such as concrete stresses, strains, thermal deformations, acoustics and the monitoring of corrosion of reinforcement bars. This procedure will allow an on-going complete assessment of the structure’s performance and service life, both before and after seismic activity. The data generated from the embedded and surface mounted sensors will be analysed to allow an innovative and real-time health monitoring solution where structural integrity is continuously known. This indication of building performance will allow the structure to alert owners, engineers and asset managers of developing problems prior to failure thresholds being reached. A range of potential sensor technologies for monitoring the performance of existing and newly constructed concrete buildings is discussed. A description of monitoring work conducted on existing buildings during the July 2013 Cook Strait earthquake sequence is included, along with details of current work that investigates the performance of sensing technologies for detecting crack formation in concrete specimens. The potential market for managing the real-time health of installed infrastructure is huge. Civil structures all over the world require regular visual inspections in order to determine their structural integrity. The information recorded during the Christchurch rebuild will generate crucial data sets that will be beneficial in understanding the behaviour of concrete over the complete life cycle of the structure, from construction through to operation and building repairs until the time of failure VoR - Version of Record
The recent instances of seismic activity in Canterbury (2010/11) and Kaikōura (2016) in New Zealand have exposed an unexpected level of damage to non-structural components, such as buried pipelines and building envelope systems. The cost of broken buried infrastructure, such as pipeline systems, to the Christchurch Council was excessive, as was the cost of repairing building envelopes to building owners in both Christchurch and Wellington (due to the Kaikōura earthquake), which indicates there are problems with compliance pathways for both of these systems. Councils rely on product testing and robust engineering design practices to provide compliance certification on the suitability of product systems, while asset and building owners rely on the compliance as proof of an acceptable design. In addition, forensic engineers and lifeline analysts rely on the same product testing and design techniques to analyse earthquake-related failures or predict future outcomes pre-earthquake, respectively. The aim of this research was to record the actual field-observed damage from the Canterbury and Kaikōura earthquakes of seismic damage to buried pipeline and building envelope systems, develop suitable testing protocols to be able to test the systems’ seismic resilience, and produce prediction design tools that deliver results that reflect the collected field observations with better accuracy than the present tools used by forensic engineers and lifeline analysts. The main research chapters of this thesis comprise of four publications that describe the gathering of seismic damage to pipes (Publication 1 of 4) and building envelopes (Publication 2 of 4). Experimental testing and the development of prediction design tools for both systems are described in Publications 3 and 4. The field observation (discussed in Publication 1 of 4) revealed that segmented pipe joints, such as those used in thick-walled PVC pipes, were particularly unsatisfactory with respect to the joint’s seismic resilience capabilities. Once the joint was damaged, silt and other deleterious material were able to penetrate the pipeline, causing blockages and the shutdown of key infrastructure services. At present, the governing Standards for PVC pipes are AS/NZS 1477 (pressure systems) and AS/NZS 1260 (gravity systems), which do not include a protocol for evaluating the PVC pipes for joint seismic resilience. Testing methodologies were designed to test a PVC pipe joint under various different simultaneously applied axial and transverse loads (discussed in Publication 3 of 4). The goal of the laboratory experiment was to establish an easy to apply testing protocol that could fill the void in the mentioned standards and produce boundary data that could be used to develop a design tool that could predict the observed failures given site-specific conditions surrounding the pipe. A tremendous amount of building envelope glazing system damage was recorded in the CBDs of both Christchurch and Wellington, which included gasket dislodgement, cracked glazing, and dislodged glazing. The observational research (Publication 2 of 4) concluded that the glazing systems were a good indication of building envelope damage as the glazing had consistent breaking characteristics, like a ballistic fuse used in forensic blast analysis. The compliance testing protocol recognised in the New Zealand Building Code, Verification Method E2/VM1, relies on the testing method from the Standard AS/NZS 4284 and stipulates the inclusion of typical penetrations, such as glazing systems, to be included in the test specimen. Some of the building envelope systems that failed in the recent New Zealand earthquakes were assessed with glazing systems using either the AS/NZS 4284 or E2/VM1 methods and still failed unexpectedly, which suggests that improvements to the testing protocols are required. An experiment was designed to mimic the observed earthquake damage using bi-directional loading (discussed in Publication 4 of 4) and to identify improvements to the current testing protocol. In a similar way to pipes, the observational and test data was then used to develop a design prediction tool. For both pipes (Publication 3 of 4) and glazing systems (Publication 4 of 4), experimentation suggests that modifying the existing testing Standards would yield more realistic earthquake damage results. The research indicates that including a specific joint testing regime for pipes and positioning the glazing system in a specific location in the specimen would improve the relevant Standards with respect to seismic resilience of these systems. Improving seismic resilience in pipe joints and glazing systems would improve existing Council compliance pathways, which would potentially reduce the liability of damage claims against the government after an earthquake event. The developed design prediction tool, for both pipe and glazing systems, uses local data specific to the system being scrutinised, such as local geology, dimensional characteristics of the system, actual or predicted peak ground accelerations (both vertically and horizontally) and results of product-specific bi-directional testing. The design prediction tools would improve the accuracy of existing techniques used by forensic engineers examining the cause of failure after an earthquake and for lifeline analysts examining predictive earthquake damage scenarios
