Predictive modelling provides an efficient means to analyse the coastal environment and generate knowledge for long term urban planning. In this study, the numerical models SWAN and XBeach were incorporated into the ESRI ArcGIS interface by means of the BeachMMtool. This was applied to the Greater Christchurch coastal environment to simulate geomorphological evolution through hydrodynamic forcing. Simulations were performed using the recent sea level rise predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) to determine whether the statutory requirements outlined in the New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement 2010 are consistent with central, regional and district designations. Our results indicate that current land use zoning in Greater Christchurch is not consistent with these predictions. This is because coastal hazard risk has not been thoroughly quantified during the process of installing the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Authority residential red zone. However, the Christchurch City Council’s flood management area does provide an extent to which managed coastal retreat is a real option. The results of this research suggest that progradation will continue to occur along the Christchurch foreshore due to the net sediment flux retaining an onshore direction and the current hydrodynamic activity not being strong enough to move sediment offshore. However, inundation during periods of storm surge poses a risk to human habitation on low lying areas around the Avon-Heathcote Estuary and the Brooklands lagoon
The devastating consequences of past events, such as the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tōhoku tsunamis, emphasise the need for continued improvement in resilience measures. Given that 80% of magnitude 8+ earthquakes occur on the Pacific Rim, New Zealand's tsunami risk is significant. This research develops a novel tsunami inundation model. The proposed model applies equations based on hydraulic principles, including energy conservation (friction loss). While it does not fully replicate hydrodynamic models, it maintains a two-dimensional approach and offers significant improvements over currently implemented simplified methods. It retains excellent computational efficiency (seconds to minutes) while achieving a significant increase in accuracy that is comparable to traditional hydrodynamic models, which typically take hours to days. Calibration of the roughness input variables to hydrodynamic modelling at Gisborne and Christchurch, New Zealand, optimised the model to achieve similarity index values of above 84% for inundation extent, while 77% of inundation depths were within ±1 m and over 93% within ±2 m. This research then produces the first nationally consistent tsunami exposure assessment for New Zealand using a physics-based modelling method. Using probabilistic shoreline wave amplitude data, the study generates high-resolution (10 m) inundation maps for seven return periods (50th and 84th percentiles). These maps are integrated with land cover and infrastructure data to quantify exposure and identify the most vulnerable locations. The results highlight exposure not only to the commonly studied cities but also to several provincial areas. The identification of exposure is the foremost step towards practical resilience efforts; however, understanding specific infrastructure impacts ensures that countermeasures and risk reduction practices are implemented. Therefore, a detailed evaluation of the NZTA Bridge Manual is conducted. Comparisons are made between the NZTA methodology and the rapid model developed in this research. The results reveal a significant overestimation of bridge and culvert exposure by NZTA methods. The study further highlights critical exposure locations for bridge and culvert assets. Flow depths calculated at bridge locations are significantly overestimated using the NZTA method compared to results derived from hydrodynamic modelling and the rapid model. This research then conducts component-level modelling of culvert assets, due to their identified vulnerability in the transportation network. At a 1:15 geometrical scale, laboratory experiments evaluated the response of different culvert set-ups to tsunami bores. The findings provide a detailed description into overtopping, flow regimes and pressure distributions and give laboratory experiments as validation studies for future numerical modelling and design improvements. Overall, this research performs a multi-modal tsunami inundation assessment, uniting macro-level exposure modelling with micro-level component responses by integrating modelling, exposure analysis, and experimental validation. The findings support refining current tsunami guidelines, improving infrastructure planning, and enhancing community preparedness. Overall, the study’s multi-model approach strengthens many elements of New Zealand’s ability to mitigate and respond to future tsunami events
