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Research papers, Victoria University of Wellington

This dissertation contains three essays on the impact of unexpected adverse events on student outcomes. All three attempt to identify causal inference using plausibly exogenous shocks and econometric tools, applied to rich administrative data.  In Chapter 2, I present evidence of the causal effects of the 2011 Christchurch earthquake on tertiary enrolment and completion. Using the shock of the 2011 earthquake on high school students in the Canterbury region, I estimate the effect of the earthquake on a range of outcomes including tertiary enrolment, degree completion and wages. I find the earthquake causes a substantial increase in tertiary enrolment, particularly for low ability high school leavers from damaged schools. However, I find no evidence that low ability students induced by the earthquake complete a degree on time.  In Chapter 3, I identify the impact of repeat disaster exposure on university performance, by comparing outcomes for students who experience their first earthquake while in university, to outcomes for students with prior earthquake exposure. Using a triple-differences estimation strategy with individual-by-year fixed effects, I identify a precise null effect, suggesting that previous experience of earthquakes is not predictive of response to an additional shock two years later.  The final chapter investigates the impact of injuries sustained in university on academic performance and wages, using administrative data including no-fault insurance claims, emergency department attendance and hospital admissions, linked with tertiary enrolment. I find injuries, including minor injuries, have a negative effect on re-enrolment, degree completion and grades in university.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This article presents a subset of findings from a larger mixed methods CEISMIC1 funded study of twenty teachers’ earthquake experiences and post-earthquake adjustment eighteen months after a fatal earthquake struck Christchurch New Zealand, in the middle of a school day (Geonet Science, 2011; O’Toole & Friesen, 2016). This earthquake was a significant national and personal disaster with teachers’ emotional self-management as first responders being crucial to the students’ immediate safety (O’Toole & Friesen, 2016). At the beginning of their semi-structured interviews conducted eighteen months later, the teachers shared their earthquake stories (O’Toole & Friesen, 2016). They recalled the moment it struck in vivid detail, describing their experiences in terms of what they saw (destruction), heard (sonic boom, screaming children) and felt (fright and fear) as though they were back in that moment similar to flashbulb memory (Brown & Kulik, 1977). Their memories of the early aftermath were similarly vivid (Rubin & Kozin, 1984). This article focuses on how the mood meter (Brackett & Kremenitzer, 2011) was then used (with permission) to further explore the teachers’ perceived affect to enlighten their lived experiences.

Research papers, University of Canterbury Library

This study investigates the uncertainty of simulated earthquake ground motions for smallmagnitude events (Mw 3.5 – 5) in Canterbury, New Zealand. 148 events were simulated with specified uncertainties in: event magnitude, hypocentre location, focal mechanism, high frequency rupture velocity, Brune stress parameter, the site 30-m time-averaged shear wave velocity (Vs30), anelastic attenuation (Q) and high frequency path duration. In order to capture these uncertainties, 25 realisations for each event were generated using the Graves and Pitarka (2015) hybrid broadband simulation approach. Monte-Carlo realisations were drawn from distributions for each uncertainty, to generate a suite of simulation realisations for each event and site. The fit of the multiple simulation realisations to observations were assessed using linear mixed effects regression to generate the systematic source, path and site effects components across all ground motion intensity measure residuals. Findings show that additional uncertainties are required in each of the three source, path, and site components, however the level of output uncertainty is promising considering the input uncertainties included.

Images, Alexander Turnbull Library

The cartoon depicts the Minister of Earthquakes Gerry Brownlee, with a portaloo in place of a head. He holds in his hand a document which reads 'Govt appointed quake panel (Shipley etc) paid twice normal fees: $1000 - 1400 daily'. A voice from inside the toilet says 'It's because they're high calibre people!' Context: Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee lobbied his colleagues to pay a Government-appointed panel more than twice the recommended rate because he claimed they would not do it for less - even though he never asked them. On Mr Brownlee's advice, the Cabinet more than doubled the pay rates for the panel from the recommended fees, which was a daily rate of $360 to $655 for the panel chairman and $270 to $415 for panel members. The Cabinet increased this to $1400 a day for the chairman and $1000 a day for the other members. (NZ Herald, 9 August 2011) Quantity: 1 digital cartoon(s).

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Opposition parties fear a new department to control the rebuilding of Christchurch will be Wellington-centric and not allow the community to have its fair say in decisions. The Labour Party's spokesperson on the Canterbury Earthquake Recovery, Clayton Cosgrove, spoke to our political editor Brent Edwards.

Audio, Radio New Zealand

Senior Constable Bruce Lamb is the Christchurch police dog handler who narrowly survived being shot in the course of duty on 13 July 2010, his police dog, Gage, was killed. Then Bruce's house was red stickered following the Canterbury earthquake in September, condemned and to be demolished.